Could Trump get out the chequebook by finally cementing a bilateral free trade agreement between the United States and New Zealand which benefited both parties?
Or will New Zealand inexorably be drawn into an evolving US-led international federation that could prove economically advantageous?
Such questions provided plenty of debate at a New Year’s barbecue I went to in Auckland this week.
It’s been sparked by the President-elect’s trolling of political leaders from Panama, Canada and Greenland over his expansionist ambitions for the United States (with more than a hint of coercion).
The debate has spilled over on to X (formerly Twitter) with one poster jesting: “There is no credible evidence that Trump wants to turn New Zealand into a golf course.” Others suggest Australia should simply sell us.
This thought experiment has provided plenty of light mirth.
But when a future looms that our doomsaying commentators are predicting is all downhill, could we prevent our slide into obscurity as “just another Pacific archipelago” — the fabled “last bus stop on the way to Antarctica” — by investigating being part of bigger group?
On the plus side, getting closer to the US would provide Kiwis with an alternative escape route out of New Zealand. Instead of high-tailing it to Australia, as Kiwis are in record numbers, they might also find doors opened to a more prosperous and innovative future in the United States and increased investment here. Maybe, we wouldn’t face tariffs either for our exports.
The US is not in a position to write off New Zealand’s national debt — it has enough of its own. But with all the doomsaying about our long-term economic future and the oppressive bills we will face to ensure our defence and climate change fiscal obligations, should we look at alternatives?
Why not host a US defence base in Northland? Rather that than having to dig an even bigger fiscal hole for taxpayers to fund by stumping up the investment demanded by international partners in this age where power and security dominate?
Clearly, this is not going to get a run in a nation still dominated by “progressive ideology” where many are anti-American — until they want a green card.
Our relationship with China may preclude this.
But no harm in discussing.
Particularly, as the Brics nations are also expanding.
Throw in the ever-deepening ties between the Five Eyes nations — the United States, Britain, Australia, Canada and New Zealand — and there is logic that it would make more sense (and be more democratic) to flush out just how deep these ties have become and formalise them within a transparent structure.
After all, New Zealand’s ties with the Commonwealth are strong — almost visceral. But not so strong that King Charles (cancer notwithstanding) was persuaded to make a short detour here while in the neighbourhood for last year’s Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Samoa.
Back to Trump
There is also geographical logic for Trump’s musings vis-a-vis Panama, Canada and Greenland. There is plenty of distaste for his tactics. But he is not a lone horseman, either. Make no mistake on this, he means business.
Panama has insisted its sovereignty over the Panama Canal is “non-negotiable”that after Trump refused to rule out military force to seize it. President José Raúl Mulino has disputed Trump’s claims that the canal is under Chinese influence, saying “there are no Chinese soldiers in the canal, for the love of God”.
Irrespective, this week US House Republicans introduced a bill for the United States to repurchase the Panama Canal after Trump’s concerns that the critical waterway is under Chinese control. The bill, named the Panama Canal Repurchase Act, was introduced by Dusty Johnson, a Republican member of the House Select Committee on China and the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.
When it comes to Greenland, it is the world’s largest island and a semiautonomous territory of Denmark. With a population of 57,000, it has been part of Denmark for 600 years. It is also a founding member of Nato and is home to a large US military base.
Trump has suggested the US simply buys Greenland for security reasons.
Trump has threatened economic force to annex the US’ northern neighbour, Canada. His pressure led Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to announce his retirement.
Trump has since re-upped his claim that “many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st state” and argued “Trudeau knew this, and resigned”. At the height of New Zealand’s bilateral relationship with China, Kiwi politicians used to joke that “Australia is effectively a province of China — New Zealand a suburb”.
That relationship is important to New Zealand from an economic perspective. It is our largest trading partner.
The US is in second place.
Former Prime Minister Helen Clark pointed out last year that a briefing from the Ministry of Defence, prepared for a meeting with former US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell during the United States-New Zealand Strategic Dialogue in August 2024, signalled a major shift in official language.
According to the briefing, “New Zealand is in strategic alignment with the United States”. Clark said that suggested “officials view our country as an ally of the US in all but name”.
A forthright interview that Prime Minister Christopher Luxon gave the Financial Times suggested New Zealand was “in lockstep” and acting as a “force multiplier “for Australia and the US.
Increasingly we have been drawn into the US nexus — the question of just how far New Zealand should go will ultimately be more than a barbecue conversation.
