US President Donald Trump. Photo / Getty Images
COMMENT:
Renowned American investigative journalist Andrea Bernstein cut to the chase: "The cycle of consequences has been broken".
On a cold night out at the Politics and Prose bookstore in Washington DC, Bernstein was spruiking her book American Oligarchs: The Kushners, the Trumps and the Marriage of Money and Power, while across town congressman Adam Schiff was wrapping up the Democrats' case against President Trump in his impeachment trial.
It was already obvious that Trump's unique confluence of money and power, combined with extraordinary political chutzpah, had ensured his presidency would remain unassailable.
Some Republican insiders I spoke with in Washington said privately that the President had crossed a line when it came to foreign interference, but just one — the former presidential candidate and Utah Senator Mitt Romney — voted to convict him of abuse of power.
In many respects it reminded me of the similar sentiments senior politicians and businesspeople expressed privately when former NZ Prime Minister and Finance Minister Sir Robert Muldoon was at the height of his powers — but they shied short of publicly challenging a political giant who had consolidated enormous power.
That same day, I had gone down to observe the March for Life 2020, watching from a long way down the National Mall as Trump told tens of thousands of pro-lifers that "unborn children have never had a stronger defender in the White House".
This was the first time a sitting President had addressed the anti-abortion rally in person.
The Knights of Columbus — a Catholic fraternal organisation that provided marshals for the parade — told me Trump had done nearly everything the pro-lifers have asked of him. "He's going to get a big Christian vote, said Steve Ogilvee. "He's always been pro-life.
"He does what he says. Everything he campaigned on he followed through with. If I could get rid of him tweeting ..."
Ben Bailey, president of a Knights chapter, added that Trump was too hard on immigration. "I'm an anchor baby, my mother came here for school and got her green card because she had me here.
"We're all immigrants. He should work out some kind of proposal where they can have a pathway to citizenship."
That said, both men voted for Trump in 2016 and will raise funds for his 2020 campaign. That's the power of a single issue.
Trump issued an executive order to block federal funds going to groups advocating abortion and cut off funding for Planned Parenthood.
But it is the appointments of conservatives Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court that hearten Ogilvee and Bailey that a line is being drawn against making abortion more freely available.
The battle lines are being drawn generationally at this year's presidential election.
Some at the march contended that many young women — who have seen the ultrasound scans of themselves as babies — had their senses sharpened on the matter.
But this particular issue polarises.
In the 2018 General Social Survey, a record 49 per cent of Americans said a woman should be able to have an abortion if she wants it for any reason. Young adults are the most pro-choice group, with 54 per cent in support.
The day after the Trump inauguration in January 2017, I had looked in on the women's march. Those women who simply see Trump as misogynistic at best will not have changed their views.
This polarisation is fertile ground for generational change.
Pete Buttigieg, who is battling for the Democratic presidential nomination, has built his campaign on exactly those grounds. At 38, he is by far the youngest candidate in the presidential field.
Gay — married — and a former naval intelligence officer, he has the raw charisma and whip smart manner that presents a real choice to the established male candidates: senators Bernie Sanders, 78, and Joe Biden, 77.
Buttigieg contends he would be a bridge to a new era of American politics.
Trump will be a strong contender for re-election.
It has become de rigueur for many in the Washington Beltway to be apologetic about Trump's excesses.
But the latest Gallup poll this week showed his approval rating had risen to 49 per cent — the highest in this poll since he was inaugurated. More Americans approved (53 per cent) than disapproved (45 per cent) of the US military action that took out leading Iranian general Qassem Suleimani.
Gallup reports Americans' confidence in the economy is higher than at any point in the past two decades. Similarly, national satisfaction is the highest in nearly 15 years.
Importantly, 63 per cent of Americans now approve of the way Trump is handling the economy, up six points from the reading in November. It is the highest economic approval rating, not only for Trump, but for any president since George W. Bush enjoyed stratospheric job approval ratings in the first few months after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
Gallup contends that whether the rise in Trump's approval rating and the Republican Party's image is being driven by a backlash against impeachment, the strong economy or other factors may become clearer in the near future. "If it is mostly impeachment-based, his approval rating may revert quickly back to pre-impeachment levels, as it did for Clinton."
Within two months of his acquittal in February 1999, Clinton's approval rating returned to where it was before he was impeached, as did the Democratic Party's advantage in party identification and leaning.
"If Trump's higher approval rating is being driven by Americans giving him credit for improvements in the economy, his support may increase over the course of the year, as it did for Ronald Reagan in 1984, Clinton in 1996 and Barack Obama in 2012. All of those recent presidents held office during periods of sustained economic improvement and were re-elected with job approval ratings of better than 50 per cent."
On my final night in DC, I went to the Washington auto show.
Cadillac and Maserati fielded their full range. There were terrific developments with EVs and hydrogen fuelled vehicles.
The young urban African American kids were trying themselves out behind the wheels of thumpingly huge SUVs (US$55k plus).
No one cared about Trump's foibles. Just an economy on the hum.
Next Saturday: New Zealand's first female ambassador in Washington talks power, trade and promoting NZ's growing space industry.
• Fran O'Sullivan acknowledges flight assistance from Air New Zealand to the US.
Expect your expresso to be more expensive in 2025.