David Seymour speaks to media after the final election results are revealed, his opinion on Winston Peters and what may happen in the coming weeks in negotiations with NZ First. Video / NZ Herald
How does Christopher Luxon skirt the inevitable “Camilla v Diana” trap when it comes to managing strategic competition around his Cabinet table?
One of the consequences of the final election result is the newbie Prime Minister will have to maintain the political affections of the worldly wise Winston Petersplus at the same time hold the principled, but easily ruffled, David Seymour close to his chest, to deliver his (what is now becoming a tiresome slogan) “strong and stable Government”.
We saw that during the election campaign when Seymour had a virtual hissy fit and threatened to sit outside of Cabinet if he didn’t get key points of Act’s agenda centre-stage in the new Government’s plans. Meanwhile, Peters, flashing his cheshire cat smirk, bordered on the magisterial as he doled out homilies and indicated New Zealand First would play a responsible role.
Judging by the public play to date – and Seymour’s disclosure yesterday that he had already made an overture to Peters to talk, and had indeed been spurned – Luxon is going to have an interesting time getting both to play nicely on the same team. They should of course start by getting a room and getting down to business.
Luxon’s initial response to the Electoral Commission’s confirmation that he was three seats short of being able to form a National-Act Government was, “let’s get cracking”.
This is trademark Luxon. He is first and foremost a man of action who relies on creating sufficient momentum to get things done and paper over any resultant cracks.
The senior directors at Air New Zealand recognised him as a strong strategic scenario builder and planner when it came to confirming his appointment as chief executive 11 years ago. But what set him above the competition was his immense self-belief in his ability to execute and their confidence he would meet targets.
This doesn’t mean he will allow himself to be stampeded into forging inadequate governing arrangements simply so he can, for instance, get up to San Franciso by November 17 in time for two days of the Apec Leader’s Meetings. But those meetings are important for New Zealand and there is no reason – unless National’s junior prospective partners won’t play nicely - for Luxon not to be able to form a Government within that time.
There’s plenty of “whats” to be sorted before Luxon can get into a limousine and be driven to Government House in Wellington for his swearing as Prime Minister along with his Cabinet ministers.
Journalists will all be pondering the same questions: What’s expected by the negotiating parties? What are their bottom lines? Who will Luxon have to sacrifice in his top team to make way for Act and NZ First’s politicians to have prime portfolios?
This is important.
As was pointed out to me by an accomplished chief executive this week, one factor that has often been overlooked when people talk about Luxon bringing a corporate approach to the Government is that CEOs get to choose their own teams. A Prime Minister putting a coalition Government together, which is also heavily reliant on a third party for support, may have to sacrifice players from their own executive team.
The top players in Luxon’s former National frontbench team are Nicola Willis – who is confirmed as Finance Minister but has signalled she could be open to losing the Deputy Prime Minister role; Erica Stanford – education; Chris Bishop – infrastructure; Shane Reti – health; Simeon Brown – transport; Louise Upston – social development; Matt Doocey – mental health; Paul Goldsmith – justice and Judith Collins – science, innovation and technology.
They will all say their roles are at the Prime Minister’s disposal – which is true. But Luxon will need to think carefully about their positioning if he is to maintain internal discipline at the same time as bringing other players into a broader Cabinet or governing arrangement who owe their loyalties to their own parties, not him.
One suggestion doing the rounds has been that National and Act should form their own coalition first and then negotiate with New Zealand First from a position of combined strength. But the electoral maths still favours Peters – he is in a position to play hardball because the other pair need him to be in power.
Luxon will say publicly he is prepared to be careful in the coming days.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. Photo / Mark Mitchell
But his whole nature is action-orientated. He is clearly champing to get on and repeal a raft of the prior Labour Government’s legislative programmes such as the Resource Management Act reforms, dump the water services reform programme and scuttle Auckland light rail plans and many other projects.
Willis has her own agenda: National’s tax cuts package which will require support from Act and NZ First to be implemented. This one is tricky as both Peters and Seymour have been highly critical of the numbers behind it.
Willis will call public-sector CEOs into the Beehive and issue them a directive to reduce their cost base by 6.5 per cent. Seymour wants 15,000 public sector jobs to go.
But Peters was around when Ruth Richardson and Jenny Shipley went hard on costs during the first term of the Bolger Government. National nearly lost the next election in 1993 as Mike Moore led Labour back from a calamitous defeat in 1990.
He will be more cautious.
Willis wants to direct the Reserve Bank to have a single focus – inflation.
All the while, the new Government will have to maintain the confidence of the ratings agencies. This is no simple matter.
National has a big first 100 days agenda for infrastructure and housing. There will also be a strong focus on crime.
On the international front, what is happening in Israel has prompted the FBI to issue warnings within the United States about a potential terrorist attack. New Zealand is not immune to these current affairs.
These are all factors which underline Luxon’s eagerness to get on with it.
What he does know from his prior CEO role is that momentum gathers momentum.
That will lead to a lift in business confidence - and about time.
