CoreLogic said today national house values fell 0.4% last month, marking the ninth consecutive decline.
Kelvin Davidson said the market isn't doing anything much in particular. Photo / Peter Meecham
Chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said that indicated a market still in a holding pattern. Although it was not falling to any significant extent, nor was it rising.
The national house valuation now stands at $800,795 which is 3.5% down annually, equivalent to a $29,100 drop.
The rate of decline in property values slowed from an average of 0.8% a month from April to August to an average of 0.3% falls over September to November.
Davidson cited mortgage interest rates and noted the Reserve Bank indicating the Official Cash Rate would likely be cut again on February 19, and potentially by another “front-loaded” 0.5%.
Barfoot & Thompson had a huge 5711 properties for sale throughout its agency network in Auckland and elsewhere at the end of November. That is only slightly below the record of the last decade, set in April with 5770 unsold properties.
Usually that agency has far fewer places. When things were booming, it had only 2969 listings in December 2013, for example. Usually, unsold stock is running at 3000 to 4000 places. Not right now, though, with vendors unimpressed with offers from buyers — if they can even get them.
Peter Thompson. Photo / Fiona Goodall
The agency lists the numbers in a chart going back 11 years headed “number of available listings at end of month”.
Yet in publicity about November activities, it highlighted the 1002 sales it had made last month, which was indeed the highest of the year.
“The long-awaited return of strong trading finally arrived in November,” managing director Peter Thompson said.
“Sales for the month at 1002 were up 6% on our average monthly sales for the previous three months and it was the first time in eight months that our sales have exceeded 1000.”
In January this year, the agency only sold 504 properties, although it was the holidays which tended to interrupt the market.
An average sale price of $1.13m was declared in November, close to the $1.12m in October but up on September’s $1.08m.
With Auckland prices being so high still, 98.7% of all homes went for $500,000+ in November.
Thompson acknowledged swelling stock: “We listed an additional 1782 properties in November, lifting our month-end stock levels to 5711. This is 8.3% higher than where the average has been for the past three months and 18% higher than at this time last year”.
He is optimistic: “The continued outlook for falling mortgage interest rates, a declining rate of inflation and expectations that the economy is edging towards recovery are all contributing to the resurgence in housing activity.”
CoreLogic’s Davidson said the recent downturn in property values could come to an end soon.
But he doesn’t think it will necessarily give way to a sharp or sudden upturn.
The Reserve Bank is projecting a rise in house prices of about 7% next year, he noted.
“I’d broadly agree with that view. If correct, it’d be a fairly modest rise given how deep the downturn since late 2021 has proven to be,” Davidson said.
Auckland value changes were patchy: a modest decline of 0.2% in Waitakere up to drops of 0.6% in Auckland City and Rodney, and 0.8% in Franklin. Papakura managed to hold steady in November, and North Shore values rose by 0.3%, CoreLogic found.
Anne Gibson has been the Herald’s property editor for 24 years, written books and covered property extensively here and overseas.
