'Football's coming home' - Goldman Sachs says, attempting a comeback after its inital forcasting flop

Fans in Trafalgar Square, London, celebrate Harry Kane's goal and England's third while watching the Euro 2020 quarter-final match between England and the Ukraine. Photo / Getty

"It's (probably) coming home," Goldman Sachs economist Christian Schnittker wrote in a note overnight, referring to the line of the cheesy Euro 1996 theme song "Three Lions", which is still sung by English fans.

Going off in Stevenson Square. Someone has brought an ironing board and some decks pic.twitter.com/7T5DvuvkMa

— Northern Quarter MCR (@NQManchester) July 3, 2021

The investment bank now predicts that England will win Euro 2020 - which would mark its first major trophy since lifting the World Cup in 1966.

Goldman crunched data on 6000 matches played since 1980 to devise its probability model, which takes into account factors such as current team strength, along with recent performances, home advantage effects, and whether a country is a "tournament team" that outperforms during competitions.

If you're impressed by big data effort, don't be.

Schnittker is, in fact, on a virtual yellow card after his team's initial pick crashed out of the tournament.

"Italy's 2 - 1 win against Belgium was a shock to our model, which so far had seen Belgium as the most likely team to take home the trophy," Schnittker said.

And England is far from a brave pick at this point. With its midfield finally providing service to Tottenham striker Harry Kane, the team has hit form and is now picked by most pundits to win the tournament.

Follow the money

Punters' like the Three Lions' chances, too. The TAB has England at $2.50, Italy at $3.20, Spain at $3.75 and Denmark at $8.50.

The first semi-final will see Italy play Spain from 7am this Wednesday morning NZT, followed by England vs Spain from 7am on Thursday NZT. The final will be played from 7am Monday NZT.

England captain Harry Kane (obscured) celebrates with teammate Raheem Sterling after scoring his team's third goal during the UEFA Euro 2020 Championship Quarter-final match between the Ukraine and England. Photo / Getty

If you want to stick with Goldman Sachs' probability model, the investment bank now has England now has a 57.7 per cent chance of reaching the final and a 31.9 per cent chance of winning the tournament. Spain is at 54.6 per cent and 24.6 per cent , respectively, while Italy's chances sit at 45 per cent to reach the final and 22.4 per cent to win.

Denmark retains their underdog status, at 42.3 per cent to reach the final and 21.1 per cent to win.

The Goldman model expects England to beat Denmark 2-1, which would mean England keeper Jordan Pickford finally conceding his first goal of the tournament, while Spain is projected to beat Italy 2-1 in extra time.