Financial Times: Ardern must show she is a leader for all seasons

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Photo / NZME

OPINION:

Last week's poor opinion poll result for Jacinda Ardern was a shock to her global supporters. In October 2020, Ardern experienced electoral nirvana as she won re-election with a 50-year record result for her Labour party. Many interpreted this outcome as a just reward for her successful management of the pandemic: Ardern's brand of competent, compassionate politics won support for suppression measures that helped New Zealand sail through Covid-19 relatively unscathed.

Ardern herself knew that impressive crisis management skills could not carry her political fortunes much further. On the night of victory, her core message was one of thanks to the country for entrusting her with its future. The prime minister's intention was clear: the political imperative was now to chart economic recovery, and to make the switch quickly.

But Ardern has never really got going on that mission. Since her victory, New Zealand has remained stuck in crisis mode. It would be unfair to attribute this solely to the prime minister. Both the Delta and Omicron waves of Covid-19 have shifted the political horizons of many governments back towards the virus. Nevertheless, New Zealand's focus on Covid suppression through closed borders has created the impression that Ardern is incapable of moving the country forward. Without a change in the narrative, political support will continue to ebb, and she may even risk defeat in elections next year.

Ardern has now, correctly, revealed a long-awaited plan to reopen New Zealand's borders and to ditch its hotel quarantine system. The country will allow vaccinated citizens in Australia to return in February, before phasing in arrivals for its citizens in other countries. A full reopening to non-citizens will occur in October.

The timing is right for Ardern. New Zealand abandoned a planned border reopening in January and public patience was wearing thin. The story of the pregnant New Zealand journalist, stranded in Afghanistan after being refused a place in the country's limited hotel quarantine programme, was embarrassing for Ardern: allowing the Taliban to appear the saviours was not a good look. The episode served as a reminder that New Zealand's determination to save lives has come at the expense of citizens overseas.

Reopening, though, will create its own challenges. New Zealand has a severe shortage of ICU specialists and intensive care beds. If relaxed borders result in a large outbreak of the virus, hospitals could be overwhelmed.

Even if a smooth reopening of borders can be achieved, it may not be enough to restore Ardern's fortunes. Most of the headlines associated with last week's poll focused on her declining popularity. While sobering, these were not as telling as the poll responses on the economy. In December 2020, 50 per cent of New Zealanders had a positive economic outlook for the next 12 months. In the most recent poll, this had dropped to 22 per cent.

New Zealand's rising inflation rate has been blamed for the pessimism. But deeper economic problems have also caused unease. Productivity remains an acute issue that, until now, has been offset by high export prices. Affordable housing remains scarce and debt as a percentage of income is high by OECD standards, making the prospect of rising interest rates of grave concern to mortgage holders. Ardern and her government do have an agenda to address some of these issues. But they are struggling to convince voters that it is sufficiently ambitious to make much difference. If the prime minister is to secure her political future, that must change.

- Financial Times