Fall in IT graduates causes concern

By PETER GRIFFIN, IT editor

The number of IT graduates coming out of tertiary institutions will hit a low point next year, hurting efforts to boost research and development in New Zealand, say academics.

The drop-off in graduate numbers is an overhang from the dotcom crash, which made it unfashionable to enrol in IT degrees, say the university staff.

They outline their concerns about low graduate numbers in a submission on the Government's Draft Digital Strategy, which seeks to set the agenda for IT and communications over the next 10 years.

"First-year enrolments in computer science are at levels last seen 15 years ago," says the submission, quoted yesterday in Computerworld magazine.

"When the ICT bubble burst in late 2000, the bottom dropped out of the ICT job market. This caused many of the best New Zealand secondary school students to select other career paths, in accounting, law, etc."

The low graduate numbers come as the IT job market begins to pick up, with recruitment firms and IT companies again advertising positions after a long downturn.

The worry now is that a lack of skilled graduates may slow the industry's recovery.

Professor Mark Apperley, chairman of the computer sciences department at Waikato University, was overseas when the submission was put together, but said statistics showed about 3500 ICT graduates came out of local universities each year, with 1000 more from technical institutes.

Fewer graduates were projected for next year, after which numbers would begin to climb again.

"The worst point is when the graduates will be appearing out of the system next year.

"That dates back to the bursting of the internet bubble three years ago," said Apperley.

"The profile of enrolments at Waikato has changed significantly in the last three years. We've been seeing a downturn particularly in domestic student numbers."

An influx of overseas students had propped up IT graduations overall, he said.

Otago University computer sciences head Ian McDonald said his department had been spared the worst of the slump.

"We've seen a plateauing rather than a decrease."

Any fall in graduate numbers was a worry considering that IT "pervades so much of everyday life", he said.

"It's not just an esoteric thing."

The academics' submission calls for a stronger push from the Government in ICT research and development.

Apperley said graduates had such good job opportunities that there was little incentive to stay on at university to participate in research.