Euro 2020: 'Red card' for Goldman Sachs after second prediction blunder

The computer said 'no'. Photo / Getty

The boilerplate investment warning goes, "Past performance is no guarantee of future results".

And so it is in life, and football.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs crunched data on 6000 matches played since 1980 to devise its probability model for Euro 2020. Its crack team took into account factors such as current team strength, along with recent performances, home advantage effects, and whether a country was a "tournament team" that outperforms during competitions.

It then predicted a winner: Belgium.

After Italy downed Belgium 2-1 in the quarters, the Goldman team, undeterred - despite now being on what you might call a forecasting yellow card- issued a new prediction.

"It's (probably) coming home," one of the bank's economists, Christian Schnittker wrote in a note overnight, referring to the line of the cheesy Euro 1996 theme song "Three Lions", sung by English fans in the build-up to the semis and the final. The Three Lions would win their first major tournament since 1966.

England has, at once, the most boofheaded football culture and the most ironic. It was ironic, right? pic.twitter.com/oNgu1UHxBI

— Chris Keall (@ChrisKeall) July 12, 2021

Initially, things looked on the up. Lots of media picked up Goldman's release, with many not realising its earlier Belgium blunder.

Schnittker and his team's prediction that England would win its semi over Denmark came true. They even got the scoreline (2 - 1) bang-on.

But then it all turned to custard.

Spain did not better Italy in the other semi, as predicted by the Goldman modelling.

And you know how final went.

england fans so depressed they’re smoking on the tube pic.twitter.com/1aOIo7wtQP

— kakashi (@theeshan7) July 11, 2021

Better luck for the 2022 World Cup.

Or maybe just stick to the sharemarket.