Fran O'Sullivan: Search for a WTO leader

World headlines were dominated for days last week by the ritualistic and somewhat archaic process to select the next Pope to lead the 1.3 billion-strong Roman Catholic church.

But behind the scenes another conclave which is just as ritualistic is under way to select a new leader for the World Trade Organisation.

Unlike a papal selection, where the cardinals formally vote and cannot openly horse trade once the conclave begins, ambassadors for the WTO's 148 member nations meet with a trio of trade ambassadors headed by the president of the WTO's Executive Council to decide through a process termed confessionals which candidate can muster the most support to lead the organisation.

The WTO is desperate for a peaceful transition from incumbent Supachai Panitchpakdi. Memories of the rows which led to his splitting a six-year term with former New Zealand PM Mike Moore linger.

It is a difficult task: regional power balances; North-South issues; rich versus poor countries; G20 countries such as China and India versus the interests of major players such as the European Union and United States are all part of the rich tapestry which cloaks the process to form a consensus on the best candidate.

The outcome cannot come soon enough. With agricultural talks again foundering, this time after the EU walked away reportedly from an agreement it had reached over how to convert its opaque farm tariffs into percentage rates, there is a need to put some new energy into the WTO.

PASCAL LAMY

Former ET Trade Tzar
Odds: 11:10

Outlook: British bookmaker Ladbrokes shortened the odds on Lamy from 5:2 to 11:10 after the WTO revealed that the French socialist had attracted substantial support among the 142 nations that took part in the first confessional.

The long-standing European Union Trade Commissioner was the last of four candidates to declare themselves for the WTO role. It is thought that sensitive internal politicking necessary to secure French President Jacques Chirac's endorsement slowed the announcement of his candidacy.

Lamy has held a raft of top line jobs: he is a former chief of staff to the president of the European Commission and former director-general of Credit Lyonnais.

He counts some powerful friends among the WTO ministers, which has helped him overcome one serious disadvantage: the protectionist nature of his home country.

Foreign Policy Magazine notes: "One of his last actions as EU trade commissioner was to put the union's reviled export subsidies up for discussion. It was a smart move now viewed in some quarters as an olive branch to the WTO's poorer members, showing that he's prepared to put the interests of free trade above those of French farmers".

New Zealand's viewpoint:

Trade Negotiations Minister Jim Sutton concedes Lamy has strong credentials for the top job and admires his undoubted Gallic charm.

But Sutton is also critical of the EU's protectionist approach to agriculture.

Like his Australian counterpart, Mark Vaile - who as far back as December said Lamy's campaign was unofficially being run by then US Trade Representative Bob Zoellick - Sutton would prefer a more obvious free-marketer in the job.


CARLOS PEREZ DEL CASTILLO

Special Adviser on Trade Negotiations to President of Uruguay.
Odds: 5:4

Outlook: Do not be fooled by Perez del Castillo's current role. The free-trader has chaired most of the top WTO bodies and was the favourite going into the first conclave where he was listed by Ladbrokes at 5-4.

The odds have not changed but Lamy has nosed ahead.

Australian-educated, he is a former Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs for Uruguay and is acknowledged as one of the architects of Mercosur Latin Americas free-trade zone.

He has strong relationships with the United States, which is not necessarily a plus in this race.

However, while he chaired the WTO's General Council in 2003/2004 - what will count against him are claims he was too susceptible to the blandishments of Zoellick and Lamy in the run-up to the Cancun Ministerial and was back-footed when the G20 group suddenly emerged in protest at the EU-US combined agenda.

At issue now is whether the Latin American countries will block-vote in his favour now that the fourth candidate Brazil's Luis Felipe de Seixas Correa has been dropped out.

Says Perez del Castillo: "I am committed to a system in which trade is not an end in itself but an instrument to improve the human condition.

"A system that promotes stability, that is capable of resolving conflicts reasonably and that cares and tends to the needs of its least favoured members."

New Zealand's viewpoint:

Perez del Castillo is openly backed by New Zealand, Australia and other members of the Cairns group of agricultural exporting nations.

Trade Negotiations Minister Jim Sutton expects him to be in the final round. 

JAYA KRISHNA CUTTAREE

International Trade Minister Mauritius
Odds: 8:1

Outlook:

Mauritius hardly rates when it comes to global trading volumes but Cuttaree commands huge respect from the African trade block and some powerful G20 nations such as India, which has come out in his favour.

Rated 10:1 by Ladbrokes before the first round, he is now 8:1. As developing nations make up 80 per cent of the WTO's membership on numerical terms, Cuttaree could seem a shoo-in, particularly if the expanded G90 group (G20, Africa, Caribbean and Pacific countries) block-vote. Certainly, he is strongly promoting himself as the current number two in the race.

Cambridge-educated and from a country that has a strong record in economic liberalism, Cuttaree has personal respect from bigger, richer players. But size may also count against him when the serious deal-makers swing into action in the final rounds, particularly his lack of managerial experience in running a major body such as the WTO Council or the European Union trade machine.

Cuttaree says: "The challenge facing the WTO today is to develop a true and effective partnership between developed and developing countries, in order to create a prosperous and stable world order where everyone feels that a fair and balanced Multilateral Trading System is in the superior interest of every partner."

New Zealand's viewpoint:

Trade Negotiations Minister Jim Sutton wants Perez del Castillo. But if the Uruguayan drops out after this conclave, as Cuttaree suggests, New Zealand is expected to fold its vote in Lamy's favour on the grounds of sheer managerial competence to get the Doha Round completed.