El Nino tipped to stay away

NEW YORK - An El Nino weather pattern, which can cause drought in Asia and floods in South America, is unlikely to emerge by July, says the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction. There is a 65 per cent chance for a neutral weather pattern over the three-month period ending July 31, the institute said. The odds for neutral conditions through August are 50 per cent, the analysis showed.

"It looks like no return of El Nino for the next year," said Tony Barnston, director of forecast operations at the institute, which is based at Columbia University in Palisades, New York.

An unexpected warming of the Pacific Ocean in February reduced air pressure from Tahiti to Australia to a 22-year low, sparking fears the weather pattern would return. A similar change eight years ago developed into an intense El Nino that caused droughts in Asia, floods in South America and tornadoes in the United States.

Eight of the 20 models used in the forecast predicted El Nino conditions would develop this summer, the institute said. A mean of all models forecasts a 27 per cent chance of El Nino developing, and chances rise to 43 per cent in the August to October season.

Barnston said there were equal chances for hot, cold, wet or dry weather developing this summer from China to Europe, from June to August.

El Nino is fuelled by rising Pacific Ocean temperatures, changes in trade winds and accompanied by a drop in pressure that shifts warm waters east along the equatorial waters, moving clouds and moisture and reducing rainfall in Asia and Australia.

Warming waters

* El Nino, which means "little boy" in Spanish, got its name from Peruvian fishermen who noticed that warmer sea temperatures reduced their catch around Christmas.
* An El Nino occurs about two to three times a decade and can last 18 months.

- BLOOMBERG