Truckometer: Traffic data shows economic growth in low gear

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The latest ANZ Truckometer suggests the economy is rolling along in neutral with little or no obvious growth.

The monthly analysis of traffic movement showed the Heavy Traffic Index fell 0.7 per cent in February, while the Light Traffic Index lifted 2.9 per cent, ANZ said.

“The [first quarter] data will be cyclone affected, but so far is consistent with our expectation of a reasonably flat quarter,” said ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner.

The traffic data did correctly identify a fall in GDP in the fourth quarter, she noted.

The latest data likely captured weather-related supply disruptions to some extent as well as changes in overall demand.

Supply disruptions certainly still exist (flood damage to North Island roads and bridges being the latest tranche).

Over time, both the economy and traffic data should revert to the more normal state of affairs, of economic activity primarily reflecting the state of demand, but we’re not there yet,” she said.

The Heavy Traffic index was up 0.1 per cent over January and February combined.

Heavy traffic was generally seen as a guide to production-based economic activity.

Variation in light traffic (motorbikes, cars and vans) is generally a good indicator of consumers’ willingness to spend, as opposed to production.

ANZ is currently forecasting a 0.2 per cent increase in GDP in the first quarter, but it was early days in terms of economic indicators and weather-related noise was inevitable, Zollner said.