Student slump turns migration tide

By BRIAN FALLOW

New Zealand recorded its first net outflow of migrants in three years last month, reflecting a drop in the number of young Asians coming here.

People leaving New Zealand for at least a year exceeded those coming for at least a year by 300, driven by both fewer arrivals and more departures.

The figures include students and holders of work permits as well as people with New Zealand residency.

Adjusted for seasonal effects, there was still a net gain of 1170, but that was down from 2140 in February and a peak of 3670 in May last year.

Statistics New Zealand said 1400 fewer non-New Zealanders arrived compared with March last year. "China accounted for over half this drop, the majority of whom were from the 15- to 24-year age group."

The latest figures were in line with the declining trend since the middle of last year, said Deutsche Bank chief economist Ulf Schoefisch.

"Our estimate is that the current underlying trend is a net inflow of around 1500 people a month, with a gradual slowdown to around 1000 expected by the end of the year."

That was broadly in line with the Reserve Bank's view, he said.

The figures should make the bank less concerned about the outlook for the housing market.

"It reinforces our view that there is a marginally better than even chance that the bank will leave the cash rate unchanged next week."