Slower growth means RBA may cut interest rates soon

Australia's central bank said a weaker expansion flowing through to slower inflation would increase prospects for the first interest-rate cut this year.

The minutes of the bank's April 3 meeting said members had lowered their assessment of the pace of growth.

"If slower growth in demand could be expected to result in a more moderate inflation outcome, then a case could be made for further easing of monetary policy."

The next rate reduction hinges on an April 24 report on first-quarter inflation, as recent data indicates the economy is growing slower than the central bank predicted. The RBA decided against lowering borrowing costs at its three meetings this year as the global recovery stabilises and a mining boom sustains domestic growth.

The Australian dollar declined on the news, trading at US$1.0333 in Sydney from $1.0342 just before the minutes' release.

Traders are pricing in a 90 per cent chance the RBA will cut borrowing costs by quarter of a percentage point to 4 per cent at the next policy meeting on May 1, a Credit Suisse Group index showed.

"We expect inflation to remain benign, making a 25-basis-point cut in the bag next month," said Katrina Ell, an economist at Moody's Analytics.

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens cut borrowing costs twice late last year as employment stagnated and asset prices declined even as resource investment surged and the local dollar strengthened.

"In underlying terms, inflation was expected to remain within the target" of 2 per cent to 3 per cent over the year ahead, the minutes noted.

The nation's unemployment rate has held at about 5.25 per cent for the past six months even as the currency's strength hurts manufacturing and tourism.

Since the April 3 meeting, Australian government data have shown a mixed picture.

Payrolls rose more than economists forecast in March, capping the best quarter since the final three months of 2010, and the unemployment rate held at 5.2 per cent.

Australian home-loan approvals fell for a second month on the fastest exodus of first-home buyers in a decade, and consumer confidence declined to an eight-month low.

Treasurer Wayne Swan is aiming to deliver the nation's first budget surplus since the global financial crisis on May 8.

Australia's currency has remained above parity with the US currency for almost four months as the RBA kept the nation's benchmark borrowing cost at 4.25 per cent, the highest level among major developed nations.

BlueScope Steel, the country's largest steel producer, shut its export division in August. Toyota Motor and General Motors have cut jobs in Australia this year, citing the currency's strength.

Officials said the US economy's "moderate expansion" was continuing, while economic conditions in several European countries "remained weak".

The expansion in Australia is being driven by China which is buying up iron ore, coal and natural gas as millions of people in the world's most populous nation move to urban centres.

Resource projects in Australia valued at A$456 billion ($577 billion) are spurring companies such as BHP Billiton to increase hiring.

Mining investment had increased by about 60 per cent in 2011 and with a large number of projects already at a commitment stage, resource investment and export volumes appear likely to increase further in coming years, policy makers said.

Australia unexpectedly posted back-to-back trade deficits as coal and metal exports slumped, a government report earlier this month showed.

- Bloomberg