Record China trade surplus expected

BEIJING - China's trade surplus last month was probably more than US$10 billion ($14.3 billion) for the third straight month, putting it on course to more than triple to a record US$100 billion this year.

The monthly surplus was little changed at US$10.3 billion from a revised US$10.6 billion in August, and more than double the US$5.03 billion reported a year earlier.

The ballooning surplus is fuelling friction with the United States, Europe and Brazil, who are imposing tariffs and quotas on an increasing number of Chinese-made goods.

US Treasury Secretary John Snow said last week he would push China's leaders to allow the yuan to move more freely when he visited the country this week.

But economists said a further revaluation of the yuan would not help narrow China's surging trade surplus with the US.

"China's trade surplus has become a structural feature of the economy, so while political pressure may grow, the economic argument for a stronger yuan is weak," said Tim Condon, an economist at ING Bank in Singapore.

"Chinese producers will remain competitive in a wide range of manufactured products for some time."

Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said China's surplus was too high and was increasing tension with its trading partners.

He said domestic consumption would have a "far greater" influence than the currency in bringing down the surplus.

China, the world's biggest maker of mobile phones and computers, notched up a surplus of US$60.8 billion in the first eight months of the year compared with US$32 billion for last year as companies including Ericsson boosted shipments of electronics goods and government investment curbs reduced demand for oil and steel imports.

Ericsson, the world's biggest maker of mobile-phone networks, said last month its Chinese venture expected exports to double this year.

Exports probably rose 30 per cent last month, after a revised 33.2 per cent gain in August. Imports may have increased 22 per cent from a year earlier.

- BLOOMBERG