Pundits forecast migration loss

Migrants have been flowing into New Zealand thick and fast but the rate of gain is easing and pundits are forecasting that a net loss looms.

Bank of New Zealand chief economist Tony Alexander said the net gain of people coming in over those leaving, 1740 last month, "underpins housing, retailing and labour force growth".

But "come 2004 we may face a net loss again as overseas economies perform better", he said.

April's gain was a 2430-person turnaround on April last year when there was a net outflow, and takes the inflow for the past 12 months to 28,060 from a loss of 11,400 a year ago, he said.

"This is good as the 28,060 people have boosted our population by 0.7 per cent."

However, April's 2430 improvement over the previous year was the weakest turnaround figure since August, Alexander said.

It was down on March's 3640 and a peak of 6610 in January, so the rate of gain was easing.

Reasons behind the migration inflow include a "September 11" effect which has led to a 16 per cent rise in New Zealanders returning home.

But Alexander said annual migration flow had averaged minus-2100 since 1972, so the boom would not hold beyond the middle of next year, especially as the rate of gain was already easing.

- NZPA

Feature: Immigration