Optimists lead in confidence poll

By BRIAN FALLOW

Consumers remain upbeat in the quarterly WestpacTrust/McDermott Miller survey.

The consumer confidence index rose three points to 119 in December.

Anything over 100 means optimists outnumber pessimists.

The September survey, in which two-thirds of the responses were received before the attacks on the World Trade Center, had been almost unchanged from June.

Auckland is now the most confident region after Southland, with Wellington not far behind.

WestpacTrust economist Donna Purdue said the cities were now feeling the benefits of the export boom.

Sentiment would also be helped by the revival of the housing market, low interest rates and petrol prices and good wage growth in the past year.

But McDermott Miller managing director Richard Miller said that bad news elsewhere in the world had left its mark. The slight rise of confidence was much lower than the normal seasonal rise in December - three points, against an average 11 points over the previous three years.

A net 20 per cent of respondents expected to be better off this time next year and 24 per cent thought it was a good time to buy a major appliance. Both levels are almost unchanged from September.

Only 3 per cent considered they were better off than a year ago, but that is 3 per cent up on September.

For the economy as a whole, sentiment has improved on both a one-year and a five-year view.

Meanwhile, pollsters Roy Morgan Research found 26 per cent of New Zealanders expect next year to be one of economic prosperity.

Seventeen per cent think expect economic difficulty and 57 per cent expect the same or don't know.

This is a fall in confidence from a similar poll a year ago, when 30 per cent expected prosperity and 12 per cent economic difficulty, but it contrasts with Australia, where pessimists outnumber optimists 32 to 14.