Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler kept the official cash rate at 2.25 percent, in a decision traders had said could go either way, while predicting inflation will pick up as the slump in oil prices washes out of the data and capacity pressures start to build in the economy. The kiwi dollar jumped more than three-quarters of a US cent.
"We expect inflation to strengthen as the effects of low oil prices drop out and as capacity pressures gradually build," Wheeler said in a statement. "Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative. Further policy easing may be required to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range."
Traders had put a 52 percent chance of Wheeler holding rates unchanged at today's review, whereas most local economists were picking it to stay unchanged. The kiwi jumped to 69.15 US cents from 68.34 cents immediately before the statement.
Wheeler has struggled to spur domestic inflation as the resilience of the kiwi dollar and cheap oil keep a lid on prices while being mindful of the impact of low borrowing costs on a buoyant property market.
Today Wheeler said the kiwi was "higher than appropriate" given the drop in New Zealand's commodity export prices, and that "a lower New Zealand dollar is desirable to boost tradables inflation and assist the tradables sector". He also acknowledged there were "some indications that house price inflation in Auckland may be picking up."