KEY POINTS:
Seasonally adjusted retail sales increased a stronger-than-expected 0.3 per cent in October, compared with September.
When vehicle-related industries were excluded, core retailing sales were up 0.2 per cent, while vehicle-related industries sales increased 0.5 per cent, Statistics New Zealand said today.
In a poll of economists carried out by Reuters the median prediction had been for an increase of 0.1 per cent.
Actual retail sales for October were up 5.9 per cent, compared to a median prediction of 5.6 per cent.
SNZ said the October figures followed a 1.1 per cent seasonally adjusted increase in September.
Of the 24 industry groups surveyed, half had recorded sales increases in October, and half decreases.
Only three had sales movements of more than $6 million, with motor vehicle retailing up $26m (4 per cent), supermarket and grocery stores up $12m (1.1 per cent), and automotive fuel retailing down $17m (3.4 per cent).
The trend in total retail sales had been increasing since May 1998. While the rate of increase eased during the last months of 2005 and early 2006 it had risen again recently, SNZ said.
The sales trend for motor vehicle retailing appeared to have reached a turning point, after a period of decline that began in March 2005, but caution was needed until more data was available.
The 3.4 per cent fall in automotive fuel retailing followed falls of 3.7 per cent in September and 0.5 per cent in August.
The trend in automotive fuel retailing had been generally increasing for much of the past three years but appeared to have reached a turning point in June, with the trend moving down 4.4 per cent since then.
Regionally, seasonally adjusted retail sales changed little in Auckland and Wellington in October, compared to September, SNZ said.
Waikato region's sales were up 2.4 per cent ($11m), while in the rest of the North Island sales rose 1.1 per cent ($13m).
Excluding Canterbury, sales in the South Island rose 1.8 per cent ($11m), while Canterbury's sales were down 0.4 per cent ($3m).
First NZ Capital chief economist Jason Wong said the data was pretty much in line with expectations and did not help in predictions on whether the Reserve Bank would raise interest rates early next year.
Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs said the main point was that the figures were not soft.
"It's going to add to the suggestion that the recent strength hasn't been one off in nature. There's something a bit more sustainable about what we've seen," he said.
- NZPA
