Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard should leave the official cash rate on hold at 2.5 per cent on Thursday, according to a "shadow board" of economists and business leaders set up by the Institute of Economic Research.
The board's nine members are asked to give a percentage value of how much they prefer each interest rate the Reserve Bank bank might go for. The results are then aggregated to provide a collective view, which gives an indicator of how convinced they are of the preferred option and how they see the distribution of risks around it.
The panel is 68 per cent in favour of leaving the OCR on hold - the same margin as last month.
If it were to be moved, they see a stronger case for a cut than a hike, though marginally less so than before the March monetary policy statement.
Like last time, the two board members favouring a cut to the OCR are Steel & Tube chief executive Dave Taylor and NZIER principal economist Shamubeel Eaqub, who is at the dovish end of the range of economic forecasters.
