Bernard Hickey : Doing nothing while we get poorer

File photo

Opinion

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand did nothing today, as expected.

It did nothing to stop New Zealand's slide in relative poverty.

It did nothing to turn around New Zealand's woeful export performance of the last decade.

It did nothing to improve New Zealand's savings rate because it left the Official Cash Rate at 2.5 per cent.

It did nothing to turn around our current account deficit, which it forecast would rise to 5 per cent over the next couple of years.

It did nothing to break the New Zealand economy's addiction to foreign debt and asset sales.

It did nothing to correct the over-valuation of New Zealand's house prices, which it estimated was still as much as 10 per cent.

It did nothing to control inflationary expectations, which it admitted were at the top of its forecast band of 1-3 per cent.

It did nothing because it thinks underlying inflation is under control and that the recent increase in inflation expectations will be shortlived.

It did nothing to stop the New Zealand dollar's rise through record highs against the US dollar in recent days, even though it admitted this was constraining the rebalancing of the economy towards production and away from consumption.

It did nothing because it says the Trade Weighted Index is lower now at around 70 than it was in mid 2007 when it last intervened to push it lower.

It was around 75 then because the New Zealand dollar was stronger against the Australian dollar.

It did nothing because it believes the much higher number of people with floating mortgages gives it more leverage when it does increase the Official Cash Rate gradually over the next two years.

It did nothing today because it believes the economy will recover with the current level of stimulus.

It did nothing because it is letting the high currency do some of its dirty work of keeping inflation under control.

It said nothing about the government running a budget deficit of 8.3 per cent this year, which it knows is keeping New Zealand's savings rate low and pushing up the currency.

The Reserve Bank did nothing today even though it knows inaction on its part and the government's part will mean our gross national income per capita will keep sliding.

It's time someone did something.

- INTEREST.CO.NZ