Election 2023: Richard Prebble - Three strikes and Labour is out, another scandal will be fatal

All the polls agree that voters do not like the way the country is going - so what are Prime Minister Chris Hipkins' chances of being re-elected? Photo / Mark Mitchell

OPINION

It is less than 90 days to the election and the polls keep bouncing around. But we can predict the likely result - we have known for three years.

In Labour’s election victory were the seeds of its coming defeat. Labour created an impossible expectation when Jacinda Ardern said it was the “Covid election”. Hundreds of thousands of centre-right voters chose her to keep us free of Covid, but it was something no government could do.

Before the last election, Labour stimulated the economy. Grant Robertson gave the Reserve Bank a taxpayer guarantee. The central bank responded with the world’s most aggressive quantitative easing. I said at the time that the money printing would cause inflation.

A loss of confidence in the soundness of the currency leads to a loss of confidence in the government. If New Zealand had MMP from 1972 to 1984, when inflation was high, the government would have lost every election.

Changing leaders does not work. Chris Hipkins has no mandate for his policy U-turns. He keeps losing ministers. The PM and the Finance Minister publicly disagree over wealth taxes. And since WWII, every replacement prime minister has gone on to lose the next election.

James Carville, President Clinton’s legendary campaign manager, had on the wall the three things that decide elections.

First was this: “It’s the economy, stupid”.

The economy is in recession. Food price inflation is 12.5 per cent. Appointing a Grocery Commissioner last week will not lower food prices in the next 90 days.

Below that first line, Carville had a second message: “Change vs. more of the same”. Elections are a referendum on whether to carry on or to change.

Oppositions do not win elections; governments lose them.

One polling question asks the key question when it comes to change or more of the same: the right track/wrong track poll.

In the US, political analyst Charlie Cook accurately predicted President Trump would lose when most analysts thought he would win. Cook cited research back to 1980 showing that when an overwhelming majority of voters believe the country is on the wrong track, the president always loses. He pointed out that under Trump, just 19 per cent of voters thought the US was on the right track.

Governments have an incumbency advantage: better the devil you know. Governments can survive when a narrow majority thinks the country is on the wrong track. But when an overwhelming majority have no confidence in the country’s direction, defeat is almost a certainty.

The economy is in recession and food price inflation is 12.5 per cent. When an overwhelming majority have no confidence in the country’s direction, defeat is almost a certainty. Photo / 123RF

Roy Morgan has the longest record of publishing right way/wrong way polls. Last election, Roy Morgan reported that more than 70 per cent of voters thought New Zealand was headed in the right direction, an accurate indicator of a landslide victory.

The Roy Morgan poll flipped in February 2022, with a majority believing the country is headed in the wrong direction. It has continued downward. The most recent poll, last month, has 54 per cent saying “wrong direction” and just 38 per cent “right direction”.

Pollster Talbot Mills reports that for 14 years New Zealanders believed the country was headed the right way. In June last year that flipped and confidence in the country’s direction has continued to fall.

All the polls agree that voters do not like the way the country is going. In last week’s Curia poll, a record 64.5 per cent think the country is headed in the wrong direction. Just 22.1 per cent think it’s on the right track.

There is one question pollsters cannot know. Will those who respond actually vote? Governments lose when their supporters stay at home. Why would Labour voters who have no confidence in the country’s direction turn out to vote for more of the same?

But no prediction is certain.

To win the election, Labour must have a brilliant campaign with practical, positive solutions. A borrow, spend and billboard campaign will not do it. Another scandal will be fatal. Hipkins must win every election debate by a knockout.

The centre-right does not have to win the campaign; its voters already want a change. Christopher Luxon does not need to win the debates, just state the case for change.

Hipkins may be the better politician, but Luxon is the better manager. Voters know that politics got us into this mess and only good management will get us out of it.

James Carville had a third line on the campaign whiteboard: “And do not forget healthcare”.

At my GP clinic, there is a three-month wait for non-urgent appointments. Too bad if you need a medical for a driver’s licence.

For Labour, on James Carville’s campaign issues, it’s three strikes and you’re out.

Richard Prebble is a former leader of the Act Party and a former member of the Labour Party.