Economy proves resilient to swine flu, say analysts

The swine flu is not having a big macroeconomic impact, a Reserve Bank of New Zealand study suggests.

"Estimates based on the latest Ministry of Health information suggest a limited macroeconomic impact of swine flu on New Zealand," analysts Martin Fukac and Kirdan Lees said.

Following ministry projections of fewer than 200 deaths, the researchers estimated a baseline decline in production of 0.62 per cent over the first year after outbreak.

Assuming 30 per cent of the population got infected and developed symptoms, and if the sick people were off for about a week, this accounted for 897,600 lost working weeks, they said.

In a conservative case - factoring in school closures, tourism drop-off and large falls in consumption and investment - output was affected by 3.3 per cent.

In a severe outbreak, where 40 per cent of the population is infected and 2 per cent of those die, output would drop 8.15 per cent.

The researchers cited earlier studies of the 1918 pandemic, which killed 650,000 people in the United States. Most of the deaths happened in a single month, and while the human toll was great, it didn't really affect production, they said.

"The broad pattern of data from historical episodes does not support large impacts on output from outbreaks of influenza," they said.

Four district health boards in Northland and Auckland yesterday reported 120 people were in hospital with flu-like symptoms, including from seasonal flu.

That was not an unusually high number for this time of year, a board spokeswoman said.

Forty-one of those in hospital had confirmed positive for swine flu.

New Zealand's cumulative total of confirmed cases is 1779, up from 1555 on Friday.

Only a small proportion of people with flu symptoms are now being tested for swine flu, and health authorities are no longer releasing a tally of confirmed cases for each region.

- NZPA