Dollar loses its sparkle

File photo / Dean Purcell

The New Zealand dollar finished yesterday fluctuating around the US80c level at which it opened at the end of the Easter break, down a little on the three-year peak of US80.35c it hit on the eve of the long weekend.

It was US79.99c at 5pm, compared with US80.00c at 8am, and US79.98c at 5pm on Thursday, after a modest bounce in the US dollar.

ANZ Bank said while the NZ dollar had briefly been above resistance at US80.25c during Easter weekend trading, it had lost its sparkle as commodity prices reversed highs.

Gold and silver prices hit all-time highs overnight and the BNZ Bank said yesterday it expects NZ$/US$ dips will be limited to around US78.80c this week, and if global commodity prices continued to climb "there is every chance we see a test of the post-float high of US82.13c sometime over the next week or so".

The BNZ said sentiment toward the greenback will remain the biggest driver of the NZ$/US$ exchange rates in the short-term, though Thursday's Reserve Bank (RBNZ) policy announcement might provide more domestic direction for the local currency.

"We believe the RBNZ will want to deliver a 'nothing to see here' message this week, including a signalled steady cash rate of 2.50 per cent for the near future."

The trade-weighted index key to monetary policy considerations was not far away - at 68.81 points at 5pm - from the RBNZ's March assumption of a 68.00 average for the June quarter.

Globally the key "event risk" of the week is the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in the US, on Thursday (NZ time) and a news briefing by US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke to see how the US central bank plans to exit from its ultra-loose policy.

The NZ dollar was buying €0.5487 at 8am yesterday, little changed from its level at 5pm on Thursday, but clawed its way up to €55.06 at 5pm. At the same time, it also gained on the transtasman cross-rate to A74.86c at 5pm yesterday from A74.45c at 5pm on Thursday.

The kiwi dropped to ¥65.35 at 8am yesterday from ¥65.80 at 5pm on Thursday and then fell fractionally further to ¥65.34 at 5pm.

- NZPA