KEY POINTS:
When nzherald.co.nz talked to David Chaston, publisher of market analysis website interest.co.nz, he suggested the Alan Bollard's message was increasingly falling on deaf ears.
"I think that pretty evident by the fact that they've been making these pronouncements for more than a year now without change and the markets, especially the real estate market, has been taking no notice," said Chaston.
"For the market to take notice they're going to have to do something."
So what has Alan Bollard been saying over the last 12 months?
Today, OCR unchanged at 7.25 per cent.
"In the absence of clear indications of a moderation in housing and domestic demand, it is likely that further policy tightening will be required."
December 7 2006, OCR unchanged at 7.25 per cent.
"Looking ahead, our projections and risk assessment suggest that a firmer monetary policy stance could still be required to maintain downward pressure on inflation in the medium term. Further tightening cannot therefore be ruled out."
October 26 2006, OCR unchanged at 7.25 per cent.
"Further monetary policy tightening cannot be ruled out, and any easing of policy remains a considerable way off."
September 14 2006, OCR unchanged at 7.25 per cent.
"Given the continued strength of medium-term inflation pressures, the outlook for monetary policy has become more finely balanced. With inflation now taking longer to move comfortably within the target band of the Policy Targets Agreement (PTA), there is little leeway to withstand further surprises to medium-term inflation pressures.
In these circumstances, we are less confident that no further policy tightening will be required in this cycle."
July 27 2006, OCR unchanged at 7.25 per cent.
"We maintain our view that the current level of the OCR is consistent with returning inflation to the target range. While second-round wage and price effects remain a risk, we do not expect to have to tighten the OCR further in this cycle.
However, a sustained period of adjustment in domestic spending is necessary, and it will be some time before an easing in the OCR can be considered."
June 8 2006, OCR unchanged at 7.25 per cent.
"We do not expect to tighten policy in response to the high headline inflation in the short term. But, equally, we cannot afford to ease policy until we have more certainty that future inflation outcomes will be trending down comfortably below 3 per cent.
Given this situation, we see no scope for an easing of the OCR this year."
April 27 2006, OCR unchanged at 7.25 per cent.
"Given the current outlook, we maintain our March MPS view and continue to see no scope for a cut in the OCR this year."
March 9 2006, OCR unchanged at 7.25 per cent.
"As long as these inflation risks remain under control, we do not expect to raise interest rates again in this cycle."
January 26 2006, OCR unchanged at 7.25 per cent.
"Given this situation, we do not expect to raise the OCR further in this cycle; however, this possibility cannot be ruled out until we see clear evidence of a sustained weakening in domestic demand. Certainly we see no prospect of an OCR easing, given the relatively high medium-term inflation outlook."
December 8 2005, Reserve Bank increases OCR to 7.25 per cent.
"Whether further tightening is needed will depend on the extent to which housing and demand pressures show signs of moderating over the months ahead. However, we do not yet see any prospect of a policy easing in the foreseeable future."
