KEY POINTS:
Business confidence rallied strongly last month with the National Bank survey's headline measure climbing to the highest level since May 2002.
But the survey has been overtaken by events.
Most of the responses came in early in the month, before the latest financial market turmoil and before Fonterra cut its payout guidance for next season, but also before the Reserve Bank's surprisingly deep official cash rate cut.
A net 2 per cent of respondents believe the general economic situation will improve over the coming year, where a net 20 per cent in August expected it to get worse.
Firms' views of their own prospects also improved markedly, but only to levels which point to pretty subdued economic activity over the year ahead, the bank's chief economist, Cameron Bagrie, said.
Investment intentions improved but a net 6 per cent expect to have fewer staff, continuing an eight-month declining trend in hiring intentions.
Bagrie put the rebound in confidence down, in part, to a sense that things could not get worse than they were in the first half of the year.
But right now the New Zealand economy was at the mercy of financial and political developments offshore.
"The stakes have been raised," he said. "How business confidence fares in this environment is next month's story."
