This reflected fewer annual migrant arrivals (although levels are still high by historical standards) and annual migrant departures climbing to record levels, Stats NZ said today.
The provisional net migration gain of 67,200 in the July 2024 year was made up of a net gain of 123,000 non-New Zealand citizens, which more than offset the provisional record net migration loss of 55,800 New Zealand citizens.
Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon noted that the cycle was steadily turning, “reflecting the cooling economy and fewer job opportunities in New Zealand”.
“We’re forecasting annual net migration to slow to zero for the 2025 calendar year (with the monthly figures likely to turn to net outflows by early next year),” he said.
“This marked slowdown in population growth also affects our outlook for the economy’s actual and potential growth, the labour market, and the expected tax take.”
For migrant arrivals in the July 2024 year, citizens of India were the largest group, with 41,100 arrivals. The next largest groups were citizens were from New Zealand (25,200), Philippines (24,600), China (23,600) and Fiji (7,900).
For migrant departures in the July 2024 year, citizens of New Zealand were the largest group, with 81,000 departures. The next largest groups were citizens of China (7200), the UK (5500) and Australia (5000)
Stats NZ noted international migration in the July 2024 year increased New Zealand’s population by 13 more people for every 1000 already living here.
The net migration rate of 13 per 1000 in the July 2024 year was down from a rate of 26 per 1000 in the October 2023 year.
“New Zealand’s net migration rate is down on last year, but is still relatively high by historical standards,” population indicators manager Tehseen Islam said.
High net migration rates in 2023 and 2024 mainly reflect the large number of migrant arrivals to New Zealand after the relaxation of Covid-related travel and border restrictions, both in New Zealand and overseas, from 2022.
“New Zealand’s net migration rate in 2023 was the highest since the late 1870s, when New Zealand’s population was under one million,” said Islam. “The rate was also high in the early 1900s, early 2000s and mid-2010s.”
New Zealand’s net migration rate of 13 per 1000 in 2024, while down from 2023, remains high by international standards.
Net migration rates are more sensitive to migration fluctuations in countries with smaller populations, such as New Zealand and Ireland.
Other countries had also seen increased net migration rates since 2022, Islam said.
Reasons include the easing of pandemic-related restrictions to international travel and migration, changes to immigration policies and increased migrant flows linked to international conflicts.
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003. To sign up to my weekly newsletter, click on your user profile at nzherald.co.nz and select “My newsletters”. For a step-by-step guide, click here.
