Net migration trends down

By BRIAN FALLOW

The net inflow of migrants resumed its downward trend last month.

Statistics New Zealand reported a net gain of 2150 permanent and long-term migrants, adjusted for seasonal effects, down from 2590 in January.

Arrivals were up for the third month in a row, but departures were up too, after falling in the previous two months.

Actual arrivals in February were 9140, but when allowance is made for seasonal effects such as the onset of the academic year the adjusted figure is 7630. That is still the highest inflow since last July.

New Zealanders leaving for at least a year numbered 5699, or 5840 when seasonally adjusted, which reversed a dip in January.

In the year ended February net migration boosted the population by 30,100, continuing the decline in the annual tally evident since the middle of last year when it peaked at more than 40,000.

When annualised, the past three months' inflow give a gain of between 25,000 and 26,000.

Economic forecasters watch the migration figures closely because of their impacts on the demand for housing and other goods and services on the one hand and the supply of labour on the other.

After the seasonally adjusted inflow rose in December and again, more sharply, in January some forecasters began to wonder if the downtrend in the migration flows and therefore domestic demand would prove weaker than they had thought.

But the latest figures suggest the Reserve Bank was right to revise down its projection for net immigration in the economic forecasts it released last week. It now expects the annual increase to flatten off at a little more than 10,000 over 2005 and 2006.

An improving global economy had improved prospects for young New Zealanders to work overseas, the bank said. "The recent pick-up in departures of New Zealanders probably reflects a return to normal flows, which we expect to persist."

Departures of non-New Zealand citizens have increased, partly because of international students completing their studies.

Also, the inflow of foreign students is under pressure from the stronger dollar, high profile closures of English language schools and an initiative by the Chinese Government to promote only accredited education providers. Many New Zealand institutions were not yet accredited, the bank said.