The annual net migration gain reached its highest figure in five years, as the global financial crisis caused a fall off in the number of people leaving.
Figures published today by Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) show the net migration gain at 18,600 for the year to October, the highest annual figure since August 2004.
The 86,700 permanent and long-term (PLT) arrivals last month was down just 700 or 1 per cent from a year earlier, while the 68,100 PLT departures was down 14,900 or 18 per cent.
ASB economist Jane Turner said the pick-up in population growth has been fuelling demand for housing over the past 6 months.
"As departures remain low, the supply of housing available for sale has remained below average, creating very tight conditions in the housing market. Combined with low interest rates and a recovery in confidence, house prices have started to pick up substantially over the past few months."
Turner said the demand for housing and pick-up in house prices threatened "a return to an economy that is overly leveraged to housing debt", which would test the Reserve Bank's patience over the next 6 months.
While the Reserve Bank remained adamant it would be on hold till the second half of 2010, ASB says it expects housing market pressures will prompt earlier action and expect the first increase in the Official Cash Rate in April next year.
For the month of October, PLT arrivals exceeded departures by 3000, compared with 1500 a year earlier.
The number of monthly PLT departures fell by 2000 or 35 per cent, including 1800 fewer departures to Australia, and 200 fewer departures to Britain, SNZ said.
Monthly PLT departure numbers have been at least 1000 lower than the same month of the previous year since February.
Seasonally adjusted, PLT arrivals exceed departures by 2100 in October, up from 1900 in September, and similar to levels seen since February.
A net inflow of 1300 migrants came from Britain in October, with 400 from India and 300 from China.
The net outflow of 800 migrants to Australia was the lowest outflow to that country for an October month since 2002. It was down from outflows of 2700 in October 2008 and 2000 in October 2007.
- NZPA
