Migration decline continues

By BRIAN FALLOW, economics editor

Migration continues to decline from the heady pace of a year ago, but a healthy labour market is expected to keep the net flow inbound.

Permanent and long-term immigrants exceeded emigrants by 1420 last month when adjusted for seasonal effects, Statistics New Zealand said.

The annual net inflow fell to 24,000 from 28,000 a month ago and 42,500 at its peak in May last year.

The net gain over the past three months if annualised would be around 14,000.

The Reserve Bank expects the annual tally to level off at around 10,000 - in line with its average over the past 10 years.

National Bank chief economist Dr John McDermott agrees that that is more likely than a repeat of of previous patterns, when a period of strong inward migration was followed by a net exodus.

"While immigration criteria have been tightened and student inflows from China are receding, a strong domestic labour market should keep migration in positive territory," he said.

A major factor in the decline in net immigration over the past year has been a sharp fall in arrivals, especially from Asia, in the 15- to 24-year age bracket.

The lower numbers of Chinese students are seen as partly a lagged reaction to the strength of the exchange rate until recent months and partly a response to bad publicity about the failure of some education providers.

As for the tightening of the immigration criteria through a better-targeted points regime, McDermott said it was too early to determine the impact.

"However, the explicit target for non-nationals remains around 45,000 a year and a considerable backlog of applicants remains."

The increase in numbers leaving was more a reflection of overseas students completing their studies than of New Zealanders leaving for greener pastures.

The unemployment rate is 4.3 per cent in New Zealand compared with 5.6 per cent in Australia.

"Skill shortages are more pronounced in New Zealand and the Australian economy has had a flat patch," McDermott said.

"In the absence of of a material deterioration in New Zealand's employment prospects relative to the rest of the world - the primary cause of previous exoduses - we expect migration to ease towards its long-run average."