The evidence of recession is all around us, according to Fonterra's new chief financial officer Jonathan Mason, but not necessarily the one holding the world in its grip today.
"You won't find any buildings from 1888 to 1892 because there was a huge recession back then," Mason said.
US-born Mason, 50, who started his new role last month, has a keen interest in the history of New Zealand and Auckland, which he says holds wonderful architecture from different periods, except of course the recession of the late 19th century.
During a typical recession, the world would start coming out of the current situation during the second half of this year, Mason said.
"Is this typical, might it be longer?"
It is a question that requires chief financial officers today to have multiple scenarios in mind.
Japan in the late 1980s and 1990s, or the world during the 1930s highlighted the worst case scenario of recession lasting close to a decade.
"And economists have that possibility at 10-20 per cent," Mason said.
But the bounce back in equity markets could be significant when it comes.
"When we get enough evidence to say we really are in a recovery ... I think we'll see a pretty surprisingly strong snap back in equity markets and around the world."
There was a delay and things would get worse here, but the New Zealand economic base may be better positioned to weather the storm than most other countries, he said. "People cut back a lot of stuff but they still go to the grocery store."
Fonterra's forecast payout to farmers this season of $5.10 per kg of milksolids was historically high.
"Compared to other industries dairy has been a great industry to be in."
The great prize was the payout, Mason said.
"Looking forward, again early days, but the opportunities we have, the position we have both in New Zealand and key export markets ... Fonterra has very exciting opportunities to improve its payout by spending capital smart, selling to key customers, value-added products."
The core responsibilities of a chief financial officer included looking after the treasury, accuracy of financial statements, tax and internal auditing.
"But then the great CFOs also understand the business drivers, what's important to the business, how do we maximise the annual payout to the farmer owners of the company, where are the levers that help us and hurt in the payout."
Mason, who holds dual citizenship, was chief financial officer at forest products company Carter Holt Harvey from 2000 to 2005 and joined Fonterra from US-based chemicals company Cabot Corporation where, since 2006, he was executive vice-president and chief financial officer.
"The way I look at the opportunity is that Fonterra is very important to the farmer owners; very important to the country. It's very appealing to come to work for a co-operative where if we can save money or make money it means a great deal to the owners."
Meet new Fonterra CFO Jonathan Mason
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