Mark Lister: NZ could learn from Australian example

High-quality, defensive companies will weather the slowdown better than smaller, more economically sensitive ones. Photo / Getty Images

Opinion

Transtasman neighbour's experience gives valuable lessons for our policymakers and insights for investors.

When thinking about the challenges facing the New Zealand economy, it's easy to see some parallels with Australia from the past few years. This could provide some valuable lessons for policymakers and insights for investors for the months and years ahead.

In 2009, Australian bulk commodity prices fell more than 40 per cent, the cash rate was slashed from 7.25 per cent to 3 per cent and the Australian dollar collapsed. Similar things were happening in other parts of the world, including New Zealand, at the height of the global financial crisis (GFC).

However, Australia had its own "rock star economy" experience as the only developed nation to avoid a recession in the GFC. Not only did Australia hold up better than most, it bounced back faster.

Bulk commodity prices rebounded strongly in 2010 and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) swiftly increased the cash rate to 4.75 per cent while other central banks keep rates very low. The Australian dollar hit a post-float high of US$1.10 in July 2011.

In hindsight, the RBA had moved prematurely. China slowed down, the Australian Government's GFC stimulus wore off and commodity prices began falling again. The RBA had to reverse all of those interest rate rises and by 2013 the cash rate was back where it was at the peak of the GFC. Sound familiar?

A year ago we were the market darling, our currency was hitting post-float highs and our Reserve Bank was getting headlines for being the only one in the developed world to raise interest rates.

Since then, prices for our main export have tanked, last year's interest rate hikes are being reversed and our currency has fallen heavily. We are in a similar place to Australia two years ago, so there are a few conclusions we can draw about the future.

For a start, interest rates will go lower, and probably stay there for longer than people predict. Australia now has a cash rate of 2 per cent, below the 3 per cent GFC trough.

Ours is heading for 2.5 per cent, where it was before last year's rises. Maybe that'll be as low as it goes, but it could be years before it goes up again.

Second, the NZ dollar could fall further. Two years ago the Australian dollar was US90c, having fallen hard from its US$1.10 high. Since then, it's declined further to about US74c. Our currency correction is probably well advanced, but we might have a little more to go yet.

Australia's sharemarket has been decidedly mediocre since 2013. Unsurprisingly, energy and mining have been the worst performers.

However, there have been some big winners. Of the top 50 companies, the 10 best performers include those that pay reliable dividends like Sydney Airport and APA Group, defensive companies like Ramsay Health Care and those with international earnings like Lend Lease and CSL.

If Australia provides the playbook for us in the face of our own commodity and construction slowdown, there is a clear strategy for local share investors.

High-quality, defensive companies will weather the slowdown better than smaller, more economically sensitive ones. Companies with sustainable dividends will do well in the face of lower interest rates, and those with a strong export focus will be winners if the currency goes lower.

• Mark Lister is head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners. This column is general in nature and should not be regarded as specific investment advice.