Arrivals are higher now than when net migration peaked in 2016. Photo / Greg Bowker
Arrivals are higher now than when net migration peaked in 2016. Photo / Greg Bowker
Opinion by Liam Dann
Liam Dann, Business Editor at Large for New Zealand’s Herald, works as a writer, columnist, radio commentator and as a presenter and producer of videos and podcasts.
New data from StatsNZ confirms that this Government has made no material change to the high net migration rate it attacked so aggressively in Opposition.
Migrant arrivals are now higher than when net migration peaked - at almost 64,000 in the year ended July 2016.
While they are beingoffset by higher departures, New Zealand's net migration gain remains at historically high levels at around 55,000 per year.
A national population projection published by StatsNZ back in December 2004 estimated that New Zealand's population would hit 5.05 million by 2051.
Infrastructure under pressure as population grows. Photo / Greg Bowker
If we needed a further reminder of the rapid rate of population growth, StatsNZ points out that New Zealand's net migration rate is currently running at triple that of the US and UK.
"New Zealand's net migration rate was 11.4 per 1,000 people in the year ended June 2019 (a time period used for international comparability), reflecting annual net migration of about 56,000 for a population of about 4.9 million," StatsNZ says in its release of new provisional today.
"This rate is similar to Australia's in 2017–18 but more than triple recent migration rates in the United States and United Kingdom."
StatsNZ released provisional numbers for September, but in a change which reflects its new methodology, it emphasised revised data for the year to April - because it is more statistically robust.
The new methodology uses electronic technology to record international passenger movements accurately rather than relying on estimates made on arrival and departure cards.
But it now takes time to confirm whether visitors are here short term or long term.
After 12 to 16 months the data is close to 100 per cent accurate.
But by 5–6 months, there is more certainty about whether travellers are short-term or long-term (migrants) and the numbers are robust.
So the estimated net migration gain for the year to April 2019 (55,700 compared with 49,600 the previous year) is subject to smaller revisions now than when estimates were first released 5 months ago, StatsNZ says.
Provisional data for the year to September showed net migration at 54,600 - although that number is subject to likely revision by up to 1800 in either direction.
But what both figures show is that, even allowing for revision downwards, New Zealand remains in the thick of an historic population boom.
"Annual net migration has ranged between 48,000 and 64,000 since 2015, and remains at historically high levels," population indicators manager Tehseen Islam said.
ASB economist Mike Jones said that even with caveats around revision "the past three months have shown net migration holding up a little higher than we, and the RBNZ, have been expecting."
Permanent and long-term (PLT) arrivals hit fresh cycle highs at around 150,000.
PLT departures picked up a little but net migration remained "lofty'" he said.
And given the net migration "second wind" had now been running for 14 months it was looking more likely this was not just a data anomaly, Jones said.
"Our assumption is that net immigration will continue to trend lower over the next few years, a view the RBNZ broadly shares," he said.
"Falling PLT migration is a key factor restraining consumer spending, house price inflation, and labour supply in the RBNZ's outlook. So the prospect of migration continuing to hold up is a clear risk to this outlook."
In other words the economy may not slow as much as forecasts.
Or, if it does, there is something else seriously wrong with it.
Regardless, what we can see from the latest numbers is that we have an economy which remains every bit as reliant on immigration for growth as it was under John Key.
