Kiwi stable after taking rough ride

The currency has come a long way down in a short space of time. Photo / Christine Cornege.

The rout in the New Zealand dollar appears to be over, for the moment at least.

On its Trade Weighted Index (TWI), the kiwi has fallen as much in the past three months as it has gained in the last three years.

Now, despite ructions on the world stage - China and Greece - some semblance of stability has returned to the kiwi.

By late yesterday, the currency was at US67.63c - after setting a fresh five-year low of US66.19c earlier in the week.

The TWI, which measures the currency against those of New Zealand's main trading partners, was at 71.2, down 13 per cent from this time last year.

ANZ Bank senior foreign exchange strategist Sam Tuck said relative calm had returned to the market after the news that the Greek government had submitted economic reform proposals to try to secure another bailout from its creditors.

Tentative signs of stability were also emerging for Chinese sharemarkets and the Chinese Government is expected to unveil measures to support its sharemarkets this weekend.

"We are in a bit of a holding pattern," Tuck said. "Obviously this could change dramatically over the weekend."

Weak dairy prices and the Reserve Bank's surprise rate cut on June 11 have accelerated the kiwi's decline.

The big commercial banks have re-adjusted their interest rate expectations downward, and most expect to see two more cuts by the year's end.

The bearish outlook put forward by the Reserve Bank has since been backed by still weaker dairy prices, a meagre 0.2 per cent increase in GDP in the first quarter, and declines in business and consumer confidence.

Interest rate differentials play a big part in foreign exchange movements and the kiwi - which has traditionally outshone most currencies as a high yielder - is quickly losing its flavour.

The currency has come a long way down in a short space of time.

In April - the currency was close to equalling the Australian dollar in value. Yesterday it was still high at A90.3c but well off parity. The cross rate remains elevated because the Aussie dollar is itself under pressure from sharply lower iron ore prices.