The net migration loss of New Zealand citizens in the June 2024 year comprised 24,900 migrant arrivals and 80,200 migrant departures.
For every migrant arrival of a New Zealand citizen, there were more than three migrant departures, Stats NZ said.
“Despite the recent fall, the net migration gain in the June 2024 year is the third largest net gain ever for a June year,” Stats NZ population indicators manager Tehseen Islam said.
However, Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon noted that the estimated net inflow of 2700 people in June, was the smallest monthly inflow since August 2022, and “notably lower than the average of around 4000 a month that we saw in the years before Covid”.
“The latest migration figures are in line with our view that the cycle is steadily turning,” he said.
“People tend to move to opportunity, and the cooling New Zealand economy is likely to result in both fewer arrivals from overseas and a further rise in Kiwis heading to the relatively stronger jobs market in Australia.”
There was a provisional net migration gain of 128,500 non-New Zealand citizens in the June 2024 year, driven by citizens of India, the Philippines, China and Fiji.
”Migrant arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens are down from their peak in the October 2023 year, while migrant departures of New Zealand citizens and non-New Zealand citizens are both up,” Islam said.
“The net gain of non-New Zealand citizens in the June 2024 year was 50,000 lower than the peak of 178,500 in the October 2023 year,” Islam said.
“This net gain of non-New Zealand citizens still drove the overall net migration gain in the June 2024 year, and more than offset the record net loss of New Zealand citizens.”
Net migration was a major swing variable in the NZ economy, said ASB senior economist Mark Smith.
“Lower net migration points to lower domestic spending and will weigh on domestic demand and wider economic activity. It will also reduce available capacity in the labour market and nationwide population growth, although the degree of labour market slack is still expected to grow.”
Young leaving
Migrants aged 18 to 30 years accounted for 38% (30,700) of the 80,200 migrant departures of New Zealand citizens in the June 2024 year.
“Those in their late teens and twenties have traditionally been a driver of annual net migration losses of New Zealand citizens,” Islam said.
Migrants aged 18 to 44 years made up 66% (118,900) of the 179,600 migrant arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens in the year to June.
Overall, there was a net migration gain across most age groups in the June 2024 year, including 20,000 across the main school ages (5 to 17 years old).
The non-NZ versus NZ citizen differences in migration remained stark, said Smith.
“We are continuing to see a net outflow of NZ citizens, as Kiwis seek greener pastures offshore. Australia remains a magnet, with 44,500 migrant departures from New Zealand to Australia. It follows that departures will continue to pick up as Kiwis seek better opportunities abroad.”
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.
