Job market hints at turnaround

By JIM EAGLES

The job market recovered slightly in December, but the number of jobs on offer is still well down on the level of three months ago, according to the ANZ Job Ads series released yesterday.

The number of job advertisements counted in major newspapers in December was 0.7 per cent higher than in November.

But, because of the big drop in the previous four months, the December total is still 6.6 per cent less than the previous year.

And the December quarter tally is 10 per cent down on the September quarter.

The number of job advertisements has been declining since the series reached a record high in July.

That decline accelerated in October and December as business confidence plunged after the terrorist attacks in the United States.

Business confidence has rebounded to pre-September 11 levels, but the number of new jobs advertised has not bounced back in similar fashion.

The modest revival in December occurred mainly in Christchurch, which recorded a 3.3 per cent improvement after suffering the biggest drop previously.

That improvement was partially offset by further declines in Auckland (down 0.6 per cent) and Wellington (down 3.9 per cent).

Provincial areas generally fared well. Manawatu recorded 12.7 per cent more job advertisements than the month before, and Hawke's Bay and Waikato were up 1.6 per cent. Otago had a 1.8 per cent decline.

The ANZ Internet Job Ads series fell for the third consecutive month, dropping a further 10.3 per cent to be 17.9 per cent lower than a year previously.

ANZ chief economist David Drage said the decline in recent months of job advertisements must have negative implications for the labour market.

As a result, the bank is now expecting the December quarter household labour force survey, due on February 8, to show an increase in the unemployment rate.

But one reason for this was the more favourable migration trend.

"While the increase in the number of available workers is small compared to the overall size of the labour market, this trend should be starting to make it easier to find suitable staff," Mr Drage said.

"Consequently, part of the decrease in job ads may be stemming from a decline in the need to re-advertise a position to attract an appropriate applicant."

As jobs become harder to find, it seems that New Zealanders' pay rise expectations are fairly modest.

A special Roy Morgan International Poll, conducted in December and also released yesterday, showed New Zealanders are expecting on average a 4.2 per cent wage rise during the next 12 months - although they think a rise of 6.15 per cent would be justified.

The survey also found that New Zealanders think prices will rise by 5.82 per cent during the next 12 months.