Job ads fall for second month in row

By JIM EAGLES business editor

The number of jobs advertised fell again last month, strengthening the view that the economy is slowing.

The good news from a business point of view, said ANZ Bank chief economist David Drage, was that the easing labour market should make it easier to recruit skilled staff.

The latest ANZ Job Ads series, issued yesterday, shows there was a 3.1 per cent drop last month, following a 2.2 per cent fall in February. That takes the series slightly below the level 12 months previously and 11.8 per cent below the peak of July 2001.

The number of job advertisements in Auckland fell 2.1 per cent, following an 8.6 per cent drop in February, but is still 3 per cent above a year before. Job advertisements in one of the worst-affected regions, the Waikato, fell 4.7 per cent last month, leaving the regional index 13.5 per cent down on a year before and 27.3 per cent below the peak.

The only parts of the country where job advertising rose last month were Wellington and Manawatu.

Drage said the figures in the past two months suggested the general upward trend in employment opportunities seen during 2002 had come to an end.

The present level of jobs being advertised - slightly under 29,000 a year - was still consistent with continuing employment growth, he said. However, that growth was likely to be "at a more moderate rate than seen during the last couple of years".

Drage said the fall in the number of jobs advertised was probably at least partly due to strong immigration taking the pressure off the labour market and reducing the need to re-advertise.

Net immigration topped 5000 in February and rose by 89 per cent to more than 41,500 in the year to the end of February.

Strong employment growth in 2001 and 2002 had soaked up all the immigration, which had "provided little relief for a tight labour market", he said.

But with more moderate employment growth the continued very high levels of immigration "may now be starting to relieve some of these labour market pressures, including skill shortages".

Drage now thought the slowdown was sufficiently strong that official unemployment might lift slightly when the March employment data was released on May 9.

"While we believe the ANZ Job Ads series is consistent with continuing employment growth, the boost to the labour force from immigration could be sufficient to lift unemployment above the 14-year low of 4.9 per cent recorded in the December quarter," he said.