KEY POINTS:
Here's a contrarian question concerning the 2008 Beijing Olympics: Who cares?
Sure, it's a big deal - the media are telling us so. One year out, we're being bombarded by countdown articles about how grand and historic the event will be: massive construction projects, an army of foreign journalists, Steven Spielberg-directed pageantry and, some sporting events.
China sees the games as a coming-out party, a showcase for its rising stature as a world power. Critics see them as a perfect opportunity to push China for greater openness, more tolerance for dissent and to become a better global citizen.
All parties may have to get used to disappointment. The Beijing Olympics could result in none of the above.
Who really thinks China needs a coming-out party? The place is, well, out. Really out. From TV news items to magazine covers to Zhang Ziyi movies to tour companies, one can't escape Asia's No 2 economy.
For businesspeople and investors, China is becoming the centre of their world. A truck driver in Waco, Texas, or a factory worker in Krakow, Poland, would be just as hard-pressed to live a China-free life. Just ask Baton Rouge, Louisiana-based journalist Sara Bongiorni, whose recent book A Year Without Made in China demonstrates the futility of existing without Chinese products.
This isn't a criticism of China's fast-growing role in the global economy, just a reminder that the nation of 1.3 billion people hardly needs more attention or hype from investors, journalists or social commentators.
A coming-out party for China would be as much a milestone as Japan announcing it makes cars.
For better or worse, China's political system in 2009 will probably look a lot like 2007.
Activists should use the Olympics to make China uncomfortable. If the Communist Party keeps a straight face using the slogan One World, One Dream, it's going to get grief for its policies on Tibet, Taiwan and the widening gap between rich and poor Chinese.
Sudan is another issue. China is finding it increasingly difficult to finesse the point that, in its quest for energy, it's helping shore up some dodgy African regimes. Hence the campaign by actress Mia Farrow and others to brand next year's event the Genocide Olympics. It's working; a Google search of "China, Genocide Olympics" came up with 1.2 million entries.
Things will only get worse, particularly if China tries to clamp down further on the media. Mainlanders generally can't search the internet for news about Beijing 2008 protests and scattered calls for boycotts. That's an economic problem, too. How does a nation that needs more entrepreneurship empower innovators while controlling the flow of information?
China also must accept the politicisation of the games. If they were held in the US, Iraq protests would be omnipresent. As the world saw in Berlin 1936 (Adolf Hitler's propaganda), Helsinki 1952 (start of the Cold War), Melbourne 1956 (boycotts), Mexico City 1968 (the "Black Power" salute), Munich 1972 (Israeli athletes killed), Montreal 1976 (China managed to keep Taiwan from competing), Moscow 1980 (boycotts), Los Angeles 1984 (boycotts), the games are political.
Athletes often are not. Will Olympians hoping to cash in on their performances in Beijing risk upsetting corporate sponsors to try to humiliate China? Some may; most probably won't. The same for companies spending big money to promote the event.
It's telling that even Jacques Rogge, president of the International Olympic Committee, is making the rounds saying the Beijing games "can only be a catalyst for change, not a panacea".
The summer games last a couple of weeks and happen every four years. It may be a big deal that they are taking place in China - just not as big as many claim.
- Bloomberg
