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Home / Business / Economy

<i>Paran Balakrishnan:</i> Nehru's prophecy fulfilled as India awakens

By Paran Balakrishnan
13 Aug, 2007 05:00 PM6 mins to read

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Opinion by

KEY POINTS:

When the 50th anniversary of Indian independence rolled around in 1997, everyone in the world's largest democracy seemed inclined to brush it under the carpet and forget about it.

Yes, we'd travelled a long way from the days of Lord Louis Mountbatten, Jawaharlal Nehru and Clement Attlee but
there was a feeling that an awful lot was still left undone.

What a difference a decade can make. Here we are 10 years later and suddenly the talk is about India as the next economic superpower and of Indian conglomerates scouring the globe for takeover targets (the latest being the Tata Group, which is considering an offer for storied names such as Land-Rover and Jaguar).

At a diplomatic level, India is now a player on the global chessboard and its Navy is sailing the Indian Ocean on joint exercises with fleets from the United States, Japan and Australia.

The handover of power from the British to the Indians on August 15, 1947, was, whichever way you look at it, one of the seminal moments of the 20th century.

India's first Prime Minister, Nehru, who had a gift for words, captured it perfectly in his speech to the Indian Parliament that night: "Long years ago, we made a tryst with destiny, and now the time comes when we shall redeem that pledge, not wholly or in full measure, but very substantially. At the stroke of the midnight hour, when the world sleeps, India will awake to life and freedom."

Since then, India has been striving to recapture the unalloyed optimism and idealism of that moment.

But with each passing decade there was less to be optimistic about. India's poverty figures remained stubbornly unchanging, and at a political level, its proud boast about universal suffrage and democracy were scarred by Hindu-Muslim riots and the scourge of terrorism.

When did the mood change and become more optimistic? It probably began imperceptibly about three years ago, but suddenly Indians are having visions of endless years of plenty.

"I am very optimistic. The momentum is picking up. What we have achieved in 60 years, we can have the same achievements in the next 10 years," says T. K. Bhaumik, chief economist of India's biggest private company, Reliance Industries.

Adds Dharma Kant Joshi, chief economist at leading credit rating agency Crisil: "We are definitely at the cusp of sustained high growth unless things go terribly wrong."

There is plenty of statistical evidence to back the bullish optimism that permeates India's corporate world and indeed the entire middle class.

Consider a few figures. In 2000, India had about 30 million telephone connections. That is now up to 225 million and rising by over 7 million a month. India is the world's fastest-growing telecommunications market and has even left China in the shade.

The signs of blistering economic expansion are unmistakable, whichever way you turn. The Indian bazaar is being transformed by new malls, supermarkets and department stores that are opening every other day.

Turn your eyes skywards and it is evident more Indians than ever are taking to the air. Aviation consultancy OAG reckons that 8600 new flights took off between May 2006 and May 2007 compared with the same period a year earlier.

Turn the clock back to the dawn of the new century. India attracted pitiful levels of foreign investment, with about US$2 billion trickling in. That zoomed to a record US$17 billion between April 2006 and March 2007, up from US$7 billion a year earlier.

The optimism is reflected in the stock market which has climbed 475 per cent in the past five years.

"India is now a juggernaut on the move," says Deepak Lalwani, director of Astaire & Partners, a London brokerage house.

But, it doesn't need an economic wizard to figure that India still has a long way to travel on the road to prosperity. The numbers on the debit side of the ledger are equally awesome. Sixty years after India gained its freedom about 300 million people still live on US$1 a day.

Look at the other social indicators and the picture is equally dismal.

Literacy has climbed from about 17 per cent in 1947 to about 65 per cent now. That is an improvement,but nothing to trumpet.

What about electricity? Once again the figures are astonishing - but for how little has happened. Go to Bihar, one of India's most backward states and you will find barely 20 per cent of the population has power.

The Government has promised electricity for all by 2012 but there is no chance of that happening.

And yet despite all this, there is hope in the air. A decade ago, when the world was limping along with the Asian crisis round the corner, it still wasn't very clear what moves India needed to make to defeat poverty.

Says Bhaumik: "In 1997 we were uncertain where the new economic policy was leading us to. But today I don't think anyone doubts the benefits of liberalisation."

In fact, the roadmap ahead is now very clear. For a start, the Government needs to throw all its might into the battle against illiteracy.

"If we can improve the literacy levels of the young it will make all the difference," says Bhaumik.

Simultaneously, and keeping in mind the fact that 60 per cent of India's population still depends on farming, the Government must boost agricultural production. Indian agriculture took a big leap forward with its Green Revolution in the 1960s, but nothing much has happened in the past 15 years.

And while high-speed economic growth cannot solve all India's problems, it can make things a lot easier.

Says Joshi: "If you maintain this growth for the next 15 to 20 years the cake will be larger."

The balance sheet of progress in the past 60 years is not only about economics. India has, against all the odds, preserved its democracy and the rule of law. How many other developing countries - ranging from Zimbabwe to Thailand or even Pakistan - can say the same?

In the end, progress comes to those who demand it. Today, even at the bottom of the pile, Indians are aware of what is happening in the world. They know there is a better life out there and they want it - quickly.

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