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Home / Business / Economy

<i>Paran Balakrishnan:</i> India marches to its own beat

By Paran Balakrishnan
27 Aug, 2007 05:00 PM5 mins to read

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Opinion by

KEY POINTS:

It was a landmark moment for Nokia Oy and a sign of the changing times. Last week India became the Finnish company's second-largest market, shooting ahead of the United States.

Not surprising, perhaps, because Indians signed up for 7.3 million new phone connections in June, making it the
world's fastest-growing telecom market. Nokia's 18-month-old factory in southern India now supplies large swathes of Asia-Pacific and even New Zealand.

Cut to Uttar Pradesh, the sprawling, badly managed and hopelessly poor state in northern India.

The state's new Chief Minister, Mayawati Kumari, back in power after years in the wilderness, has suddenly ordered the shutting down of retail chain stores owned by big corporations.

Mayawati, famous for her mercurial temper and impulsive decisions, justified her decision on "law and order" grounds after small traders held demonstrations outside many new stores.

The result was that 14 mini-supermarkets owned by the multibillion-dollar Reliance Group have downed shutters.

These are uncertain times around the globe as the sub-prime loans crisis unravels and everyone waits with bated breath to see if new horrors are about to emerge from Wall Street and the world's other financial centres.

India's stock market started out by taking its cues from New York, London and Hong Kong and went into a deep swan dive, falling by about 13 per cent.

But India always marches to its own drumbeat. And even as India's telecom industry scales new heights and its companies prepare for growth on a gigantic scale, there are roadblocks looming on the way.

First and foremost, there's politics that's threatening to trump the Indian economic growth story.

The man in the spotlight is India's Red Czar, Prakash Karat, who's on the warpath and playing a game of nuclear brinkmanship, threatening to bring down the Government led by economist turned Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

Karat is an old-fashioned communist and he's annoyed that, after two years of torturous negotiations, the Indian Government is about to sign a path-breaking deal on nuclear fuel with the United States.

The deal's important from the Indian point of view because it will enable the Government to buy fuel for its ageing nuclear plants.

But Karat's upset that the deal may bind India closer to the "imperialist Great Satan", the United States.

The communists count because they have some 60 seats in Parliament and Singh's Government can't survive without them.

If the communists press the button, there'll be a general election - one that nobody is ready for, not even the communists.

Are times about to turn tough and is the Indian growth machine about to sputter to a stop? The warning lights have, of course, been flashing since early this year when the Reserve Bank of India moved swiftly to cool the economy by hiking interest rates. The results are already showing in industries such as autos, two-wheelers and property - though the real estate sector clearly needed a bit of cooling.

In other ways too, the pressures that accompany fast-paced growth have been showing this year. In Bengal - which is ironically run by the communists but which is pushing for industrial growth in a big way - villagers have fought running battles with the police when the Government tried to take over land for new factories.

Still, there's plenty of reason for optimism. For a start, consider the Nokia experience. The mobile phone giant's two biggest markets are now China and India and there's no sign yet that growth is likely to slow in either country.

Or look at Holcim, the Swiss cement leviathan which announced last week that it will spend US$1 billion ($1.38 billion) to boost its stake in Indian cement company Gujarat Ambuja. Holcim said that sales climbed 34 per cent in Asia in the second quarter and that spending a billion on Gujarat Ambuja would be well worth it.

"The very dynamic volume growth in India will continue as there is a huge backlog in housing and infrastructure," said Holcim's chief executive.

The last three years have been an era of blazing economic growth in India - without any help from the Government.

Ever since it came to power in May 2004 the Congress-led Government has found itself stymied by the communists whenever it attempted to make major policy shifts. The communists stopped the entry of foreign retail chains into India and they haven't allowed reforms in the insurance sector. Also, they have flatly refused to countenance any reform of labour laws.

Despite all that, the Indian economy is still on the fast track and that probably accounts for the bullishness of many commentators. "Industry is quite insulated from political developments though some of the peripheral things which are likely to impact industry could be a matter of concern," says T. K. Bhaumik, chief economist at Reliance Industries.

Is the optimism justified?

There would be problems if the hedge funds and financial institutions began pulling out money from the Indian stockmarkets in a major way.

But the Indian economy is not export oriented like China, so it might be able to ride out a global economic storm better than others. That's not all. Indian businessmen have had three years of rip-roaring growth and most of them still haven't gone far beyond the biggest cities and towns.

They are now starting a huge push into rural and small town India.

Still, these are uncertain times and nobody knows what the next six months hold. Will the sub-prime loans crisis end the global growth party?

Will Indian businessmen be caught in the coils of political uncertainty and will a lame-duck Government give up all attempts at economic reforms? One way or another for the next few months, it's bound to be a bumpy ride.

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