In his pre-Budget teaser speech Prime Minister John Key made the somewhat redundant pledge that there "will be no changes, however, to... KiwiSaver tax credits".
As the tax advantages of KiwiSaver have already been pared down to a marginal level, any further claw-back would bring the scheme's incentive value close enough to zero.
While the halving of the KiwiSaver tax credit from $1043 to $521 (approx) was the most visible reduction, the removal of the tax exemption for the employer contribution, which came into force this April, has a more subtle but nonetheless significant effect.
By my calculations, assuming the employer makes a 2 per cent contribution to match the employees' (after tax) 2 per cent, for someone on $50,000 a year the new KiwiSaver contribution tax will deduct $300 - leaving a net gain from the KiwiSaver tax credit of $221.
As income hits about $90,000 the value of the KiwiSaver tax credit gets wiped out completely by the new employer contributions tax.