Immigration: Biggest loss of Kiwi citizens in a decade but Stats NZ says migrants still coming

The departures board inside the Qantas first class lounge. Photo / Getty Images

Migrant arrivals have continued to soar in the year to June 2023 although the really big net gains are being offset as more Kiwis depart.

Annual net migration rose again in the year to June, at 86,800 - made up of a net gain of 121,600 non-New Zealand citizens and a net migration loss of 34,800 New Zealand citizens.

It was the largest net migration loss of New Zealand citizens since the year to April 2013.

The annual June figure of 86,800 migrants from all countries compares to a net gain of 77,800 for the year to May and an all-time record gain of 91,700 in the year to March 2020.

The net monthly gain for July 2023 was 5000, down slightly on gains in the past few months.

The monthly gain in May was 7000, down from 8000 in April and well off the big gains, above 13,000, in February and March.

“Given such strong net immigration, the New Zealand economy and the housing market should be booming,”  said ASB senior economist Mark Smith.

“It is not: to date we have seen scant evidence of an immigration boost to domestic demand and the housing market.”

The economy was currently flirting with outright recession and the household sector was retrenching, he said.

“Either the migration “boost” this time around is different, or the New Zealand economy is also being hit by adverse shocks.  The latter is possible.”

Arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens continued to be the main driver of New Zealand’s net migration gain in the June 2023 year, said Stats NZ population indicators manager Tehseen Islam.

“Months since November 2022 have averaged net migration gains of about 12,000 non-New Zealand citizens a month, which is high by historical standards.”

The rebound in non-New Zealand citizen migration follows the progressive relaxation of pandemic-related border restrictions from early 2022, as well as changes to immigration settings.

Citizens of India, Philippines, China, South Africa, and Fiji drove net migration gains in the June 2023 year.

Of those departing, New Zealand citizens aged 18-30 years accounted for half (17,500) of the provisional net migration loss of 34,800 in the June 2023 year.

Before the Covid-19 pandemic, New Zealand usually had an annual net migration loss of New Zealand citizens.

The net migration gain of 121,600 non-New Zealand citizens in the June 2023 year compared with a net migration loss of 5,200 in the June 2022 year.

The current net gain is above recent June years (2015-2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic), which had average net gains of 60,500 a year.

There was a provisional net migration loss of 13,600 people to Australia in the year ended December 2022. This was made up of 20,300 migrant arrivals from Australia to New Zealand, and 33,900 migrant departures from New Zealand to Australia.

The largest-ever annual net migration loss of New Zealand citizens was 44,400 in the February 2012 year.

Traditionally, there has been a net migration loss from New Zealand to Australia. This averaged nearly 30,000 a year during 2004-2013, and about 3,000 a year during 2014-2019.