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Home / Business / Economy

<i>Liam Dann</i>: Reason to allow a smile after 15 months of gloomy news

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
23 Sep, 2009 04:00 PM2 mins to read

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Liam Dann
Opinion by Liam Dann
Liam Dann, Business Editor at Large for New Zealand’s Herald, works as a writer, columnist, radio commentator and as a presenter and producer of videos and podcasts.
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John Key hopes to raise the country's profile on Letterman this week but he's just been upstaged by a little number that grabbed headlines on all the news wires that matter.

"New Zealand Emerges From Its Worst Recession in 30 Years" declared Bloomberg News yesterday.

Never mind the economists' caveats, that declaration was the official call as far as the rest of the world was concerned.

That 0.1 per cent rise in GDP growth is statistically insignificant. It is a line ball that might yet get revised, but markets weren't waiting for the video ref.

The traders delivered their verdict in minutes and the New Zealand dollar spiked to a new 13-month high.

So yes, that's it. It is officially, technically over. We're out and after 15 months of lousy, unsettling and generally gloomy news we ought to be allowed a smile. It wasn't pretty but we'll take it.

There are plenty of reasons to be cautious and there is debate about how good a measure GDP is anyway. Wouldn't we be better focusing on something more meaningful like unemployment? And if you want to get really macro-economic, New Zealand still has a truckload of structural problems.

But none of that was news yesterday when the headlines flashed around the world. "Better than expected," were the words that got the markets excited and they are the words that we should celebrate.

Sentiment and perception play a big part in how an economy performs. So if nothing else this could mark a symbolic turning point, and a reminder that things are not now as bad as they might have been.

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Do you think the recession will be over by early 2010? Is it over now?

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