Leading questions: Economist Gareth Morgan

Gareth Morgan. Photo / Glenn Jeffrey

Business leaders look back on a tough year and ahead to what's in store in 2010

How was the recession for you?

A long overdue sobering up for New Zealanders addicted to a debt-spiked cocktail of property and fringe investing, so we found it refreshing to be able to have so many conversations with people who were no longer intoxicated with that false reality. The chasing-high-returns-now crowd became suitably chastised, but there'll always be some new kid on the block boasting last year's performance as proof of immortality and suckers lining up to be disappointed.

What was the biggest lesson you'll take out of it?

That without freely available credit, New Zealanders are more capable of making informed, sustainable investment and savings decisions.

Are we through the worst of it yet?

Which bank or sovereign will be next to declare it's built on sand.

It's a long fall from a world built on huge imbalances of deficits, surpluses and credit to one where all of those are materially smaller in size. What does the world economy look like without the American consumer driving it? And can we get there without further calamity? We simply do not know the answer.

What is likely to trip recovery?

Debt defaults.

What will you be doing in 2025?

Riding my motorcycle - on earth or in the ether. My mission is to avoid an old folks home at all costs.