KEY POINTS:
National is still odds-on to lead the next Government irrespective of the revelations in the latest "secret tapes".
The business sector has factored in a John Key victory. But until yesterday there were still doubts over the urgency the self-proclaimed "progressive" had attached to dealing with the impact of the international financial crisis on the New Zealand economy.
The lingering doubts forced Key to release his 100 days action plan.
From an economic perspective, this would see National's personal tax package passed before Christmas, the opening of the Government's financial books, the introduction of legislation to reform the RMA, the passage of transitional relief measures to Kiwis whacked by redundancy, the appointment of an Infrastructure Minister and the admonition to public service CEOs to undertake a line-by-line review of departmental spending.
It is instructive that Key has not included his campaign pledge to direct the NZ Super Fund to put 40 per cent of its investments here, or cut R&D tax incentives, or meddle with KiwiSaver.
Each of these policy changes has unintended consequences. Senior business people are evenly split over the proposed changes to the Super Fund - many seeing it as an opportunistic short-term response which looks like smart politics but is in fact poor investment practice.
Others believe it could be developed further to be the linchpin of plans to ultimately partially privatise SOEs with control jointly held via the Super Fund stake and direct Government investment.
Politicians like United Future's Peter Dunne - currently Revenue Minister - may want to relitigate the R&D measures in post-election talks.
Behind scenes National strategists have cautioned against issuing too broad a policy response to the financial crisis under an incoming Government as briefed by the Treasury mandarins.
Helen Clark has pledged an economic stimulus package but like National has not put too much flesh on the bones until the numbers are known.
It will undoubtedly be spooky stuff for whoever holds the Treasury reins.
* Gordon McLauchlan plunged into the history books to lecture me why last week's call for a "wartime-style Cabinet" response to the international financial crisis would not work, citing NZ precedents. I had the 1940s and Winston Churchill's effort in mind. Gordon clearly has a longer memory.
