Battling the slowdown: Growth mentality persists despite gloomy forecast

Retailers are relaxed about warnings the economy is headed for a fall. Some are even expanding.

Postie Plus Group chief executive Ron Boskell is growing its Postie Plus stores, developing the Who's Henri chain through a trial in Rotorua, and creating another brand.

Boskell says he has not noticed any fall in consumer spending and says the company's marketing focus on value would help it weather any storm.

Briscoes Group is to launch the first of its new Loft outlets next month - and The Warehouse is moving into groceries.

Analysts say the expansion by these publicly listed retailers reflects a genuine optimism about prospects and is not just about securing their share in a diminishing market.

But this optimism is belied by yesterday's GDP figures showing the retailing, accommodation and restaurant sector contracted by 0.4 per cent in the June quarter.

Retailer's Association chief executive John Albertson agrees there has been some slowdown in retail spending over the past six months, but says this is partly due to consumers facing the highly visible increase in fuel costs, with some consumers also coming off two-year fixed-term mortgages on to higher rates.

"It is more of a gut feeling than anything, but the doom and gloom we are getting now is probably not necessary," said Albertson. "We've been talking about a crash for a long time, but you get to a point where the consumer says, 'this is not the reality for me'."

He says the industry has had a great two to three years and spending was up 8 per cent last year when the economy grew by only 2.2 per cent. But, he adds, retailers are more cautious now, using a lot more research and analysis.