This Budget will not be defined by what is in it but by what is missing. The housing crisis - both in affordability and the flow-on to homelessness - simply has not been adequately addressed.
You can bet Bill English's bottom dollar that in the lead up to next year's Budget the Herald will be running stories about skyrocketing house prices, locked out first home buyers and people living in cars and garages because they can't afford the rent for proper accommodation.
It is astonishing that nothing has been introduced to tackle demand in the housing market and that there's nothing for first home buyers locked out of the Kiwi dream of home ownership.
On supply it's a reheat of last year's failed attempt to free up Crown land in Auckland. Nick Smith only found twelve hectares with $50m. An extra $100m won't make much difference at all given his rate of progress. Labour has a comprehensive plan for housing, including Kiwibuild, to build thousands of affordable homes, and will crack down on speculators, here and offshore.
Bill English's Budget will keep the Reserve Bank Governor awake at night - Graeme Wheeler is a man who knows we need to tackle the structural challenges facing the economy of a housing crisis, over-reliance on the dairy industry, struggling regions and creaking infrastructure.