Goodbye rock star economy - HSBC changes tune

Does New Zealand still have a rock star economy? Metallica lead guitarist Kirk Hammett. File photo / Wayne Drought

The bank that dubbed New Zealand the "rock star economy" has dramatically changed its tune.

HSBC has added New Zealand to a watch-list of nations it has concerns about, which also includes Malaysia, Indonesia and Norway.

In its latest Macro Health Check report, the bank flags concerns about rising house prices in this country, as well as our deep links with China - where growth is slowing - and tumbling dairy prices, according to the Bloomberg news agency.

"Although low-risk, New Zealand may be one to watch," HSBC economist James Pomeroy is quoted as saying.

To be fair, it was a different HSBC staffer - chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Paul Bloxham - who coined the rockstar economy phrase in January 2014.

In the report, Pomeroy says economic forecasters spend too much time "finessing" their central projections.

"But sometimes by focusing on the most likely outlook for growth we lose track of vulnerabilities that are accumulating," he says.

In an interview with Fairfax Media this month, Bloxham said the New Zealand economy was returning to normal after growing very strongly last year.

"Growth was very strong in 2014, New Zealand was the fastest-growing [developed] economy in 2014 and that's why we labelled it as a bit of a rockstar," he said.

Most economists are anticipating annual gross domestic product growth in the region of 2 per cent this year, down from 3.3 per cent in 2014.

Bloxham told Fairfax that strong tourism figures - annual international arrivals broke through the 3 million mark recently - were bolstering this country's growth.

"What you're seeing is a shift towards tourism being a key driver of growth," he said.