Fewer migrants coming to NZ

The net inflow of migrants continued to dwindle last month, meaning less pressure on the housing market but little relief from labour shortages.

Statistics New Zealand said, adjusted for seasonal effects, the net inflow of permanent and long-term migrants (those coming or going for at least a year) was 300, down from 480 in February and 1290 in March last year.

The net gain from migration over the year ended March was 10,000, down from 28,000 the year before and 41,000 the year before that.

Including natural increase, the population is growing at about two-thirds of its pace a year ago and only half as fast as at the peak of the migration cycle in early 2003.

Dwindling net immigration has two opposing effects on interest rates. It reduces the economy's potential growth rate as the supply of labour grows more slowly, increasing the risk of inflationary bottlenecks. It also reduces pressure on the housing market, an inflationary hotspot, and eases growth in demand within the economy generally.

ANZ National Bank chief economist John McDermott said the figures did nothing to alter his expectation that the Reserve Bank would leave interest rates at their present restrictive level for the foreseeable future.

Without adjusting for seasonality, there was a net outflow of 1400 migrants last month, 1100 more than a year ago.

Compared with March last year there were 900 more departures (700 of them New Zealand citizens) and 200 fewer arrivals.

There was a net loss of 17,000 people to Australia over the year ended March (6000 more than the previous year).

The other large change was a fall of 6000 in the net gain from China.

"We expect the net immigration inflow to continue easing to below 10,000 over 2005 but settle around 15,000 thereafter," McDermott said.