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Why forecasters got Covid unemployment wrong

Matt Nippert
By
Business Investigations Reporter·NZ Herald·
8 mins to read

Matt Nippert and Keith Ng pick through economic forecasts and wage subsidy and company administration data to find an economy that's doing better than anyone predicted.

When Statistics New Zealand made its big announcement this week, the resulting cries would suggest that it was the sky and not the rate of unemployment that had fallen.

The official rate of unemployment for the three months to June declined from 4.2 to 4 per cent, dramatically undercutting predictions from both bank and

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