Slow, steady job growth is predicted for the next two years by a new short-term employment forecast produced by the Department of Labour, with growth strongest in Auckland, Christchurch and in skilled and professional roles.
The outlook forecasts a further 100,000 jobs will open up over the same period from people retiring and leaving the workforce, on top of the 93,700 new jobs it expects to be created between now and March 2014. Some 32,400 of the forecast increase is in the construction sector, reflecting the Christchurch rebuild and expected growth in Auckland, while 33,600 will be highly skilled positions.
The 4.2 percent increase over two years is expected to bring the official unemployment rate down to 5.4 percent by March 2014 from 6.3 percent at present. That's a higher rate of joblessness than the Reserve Bank's forecast of 4.8 percent in its latest monetary policy statement.
The new short-term employment prospects survey uses a new forecasting model, and will be produced twice yearly to complement other official statistics and forecasting, and is expected to assist with policy development on skills, employment and welfare issues.
"Our model complements other government forecasting as it reports on 11 regions, 28 industries and 96 occupational groups, and allows us to forecast employment growth breakdowns by region, industry and skill level," the general manager of the department's Labour and Immigration Research Centre, Vasantha Krishnan said.
